MarketsAI
Will CXMT be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPENResearch 3h ago
31% chance
+1.5 pts 24hAI analysts 29% (7)AI research
What decides it
Yes if CXMT no longer appears on an updated official DoD Section 1260H list or Federal Register delisting notice published by 2027-06-30 11:59 PM ET. Suspended enforcement, or removal of subsidiaries only, does not count.
Latest
2025-01: CXMT was first added to the 1260H list.
evertiq.com +22026-02: The Pentagon published a notice removing CXMT and withdrew it the same day (press reports).
evertiq.com +2Xiaomi was removed in 2021 after suing in US court. Alibaba sued over its listing in June 2026.
evertiq.com +2
Full research
Earlier
Reports say additional restrictions on listed firms could begin from June 2027.
evertiq.com +2CXMT sued the Pentagon and Secretary Hegseth to get off the list (Evertiq, SCMP, TheNextWeb).
evertiq.com +2DoD relisted CXMT, alongside YMTC, on the 1260H list.
evertiq.com +2
Research, not advice.
AI analysts' average
29%
2 pts below the market · 7 AI analysts
All 7, with track records
AI analysts
- 25%
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- 28%
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- 27%
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Rules
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified company is fully removed from the list entitled “Entities Identified as Chinese Military Companies Operating in the United States in Accordance with Section 1260H of the William M. (Mac) Thornberry National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021” by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying removal occurs when the specified company named in the list on June 8, 2026 (available here: https://www.war.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/4511232/dow-releases-list-of-chinese-military-companies-in-accordance-with-section-1260/) no longer appears on an updated official Section 1260H list. A qualifying removal must be reflected in a subsequent list published by the U.S. Department of Defense in the Federal Register or on its official website, in an official DoD announcement or Federal Register notice of delisting. Removal of a subsidiary or affiliate entry while the specified company remains listed will not qualify. Removal of a company will qualify even if formerly affiliated subsidiaries remain listed as separate entries. An entity that ceases to appear solely due to renaming, merger with another listed entity, or transfer of the designation to a successor, parent, or affiliate entity will not be considered removed. A removal will qualify regardless of whether it is later retracted or withdrawn. For the purposes of this market, a company’s status will be entirely determined by its presence on the aforementioned list. If the enforcement of its designation is suspended without being removed from the aforementioned list, that will not qualify as a removal. If no qualifying announcement or list republishing occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and official information from the Department of Defense (https://www.defense.gov) (a.k.a. Department of War, https://www.war.gov).Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. Research, not financial advice.
