MarketsAI
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $300B by December 31?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPENResearch 2h ago
8% chance
+1.8 pts 24hOpening price · no trades yet
AI research
What decides it
Yes if Databricks' NPM Price-implied valuation (Nasdaq Private Market / SecondMarket data page) for any date from market creation to Dec 31, 2026 is at least $300B. If Databricks lists before then, the IPO-implied valuation and public market cap also count.
Latest
2026-08: Databricks closed a $5B round at a $190B valuation, led by Coatue. The prior round was $134B in Feb 2026 (thenextweb).
thenextweb.com2026-08: Annualized run rate was $7.0B, up from $5.4B (thenextweb).
thenextweb.com2026-10: I found no current NPM price for Databricks and no announced IPO date.
thenextweb.com +1
Full research
What decides it
Yes if Databricks' NPM Price-implied valuation (Nasdaq Private Market / SecondMarket data page) for any date from market creation to Dec 31, 2026 is at least $300B. If Databricks lists before then, the IPO-implied valuation and public market cap also count. Otherwise No.
Earlier
Forge Global's price was $242.04 per share, implying about $170.7B. This is Forge's metric, not the NPM figure the rule names (Forge insights).
forgeglobal.com
Research, not advice.
Play money · for training
Think 8% is wrong? Test your call first.
Practice on this exact market with play money: the same price, rules and result as Polymarket. Play money has no cash value. Every call goes on your record, so you can see how good your read really is.
Free. No card. Turn it off any time.
Rules
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Databricks' private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-53787f17-a704-47a9-895a-cb54833bdb1f/data). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. Research, not financial advice.
