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MarketsMovies & TV

Oscars 2027: Best Picture Nominations

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN19 levels openCloses Jan 21, 2027Research 1h ago

Polymarket price · the 4 levels nearest 50%

The Invite 58%I Play Rocky 44%Fjord 36%All of a Sudden 36%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.

19 levels open · by chance

OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
La Bola Negra95%−0.5 pts75%1 · 0
Wild Horse Nine92%—86%none
Dune: Part Three87%+0.5 pts80%none
Project Hail Mary78%−2.0 pts72%0 · 1
The Debut77%+1.0 pts65%none
You Can See Everything71%+0.5 pts27%2 · 0
The Invite58%−0.5 pts53%1 · 2
I Play Rocky44%−1.0 pts32%0 · 1
Fjord36%−3.0 pts37%none
All of a Sudden36%—35%0 · 1
Obsession34%—34%none
Elsinore30%—32%none
The Adventures of Cliff Booth20%+0.5 pts20%0 · 1
Digger19%+0.5 pts17%1 · 0
Behemoth!19%+3.5 pts21%none
Michael11%−1.5 pts11%none
Avengers: Doomsday9%−1.5 pts8%none
Disclosure Day6%−0.5 pts8%0 · 2
Fatherland5%−1.1 pts6%0 · 1

19 options trading, by chance. +3 more on Polymarket For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

1AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 1h ago
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
La Bola Negra95%75%−20
Wild Horse Nine92%86%−6
Dune: Part Three87%80%−7
Project Hail Mary78%72%−6
The Debut77%65%−12
You Can See Everything71%27%−44
+13 more options

AI analysts' average · Fatherland

6%

1 pts above the market · 1 AI analyst

Biggest gap

You Can See Everything: AI 27% vs market 71%, 44 pts below

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

3Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.

Polymarket's film awards traders by 3-month profit · updated 1h ago
OptionHoldingTiers 1–2
The Invite31 · 2
You Can See Everything22 · 0
Disclosure Day20 · 2
La Bola Negra11 · 0
Project Hail Mary10 · 1
I Play Rocky10 · 1
All of a Sudden10 · 1
The Adventures of Cliff Booth10 · 1
Digger11 · 0
Fatherland10 · 1

9 options: no ranked trader holds them

Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 19 options

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed film is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Picture. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Picture when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.Show rulesHide rules
Resolution criteria
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed film is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Picture. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Picture when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
How markets resolve
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Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

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Fatherland · Buy YesOption 19 of 19

Polymarket price · live

Yes6¢
No97¢
Trade on Polymarket

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Before you decide · Fatherland

  • News2 today · latest 5h
  • AI analysts6% · 1 pts above
  • Tiers 1–20 Yes · 1 No
Paper trading · play money

Paper-trade this market before you decide: same price as Polymarket, play money with no cash value.