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Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Specific Margin of Victory
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
Event finished3 optionsResearch 5h ago
Lula da Silva 2-4% >99%Flávio Bolsonaro 8-10% <1%Flávio Bolsonaro 10-12% <1%
3 options · in level order
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
3 open levels, in level order. +11 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Flávio Bolsonaro 10-12%<1%1%+1
Flávio Bolsonaro 8-10%<1%3%+3
Lula da Silva 2-4%>99%5%−95
AI analysts' average · Flávio Bolsonaro 8-10%
3%
3 pts above the market · 1 AI analyst
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 0 level, 1 price closer, on 261 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
Lula da Silva 2-4%Yes Melody626Melody626: Tier 2, #12 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 No CoffeeDespiserCoffeeDespiser: Tier 2, #35 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T24 Melody626Melody626: Tier 2, #12 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2BiDiFakePollsBiDiFakePolls: Tier 2, #22 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 1 CoffeeDespiserCoffeeDespiser: Tier 2, #35 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T24 · 1
2 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- Resolution criteria
- The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If a candidate other than Flávio Bolsonaro or Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva receives the most valid votes in the second round, or if the top two candidates receive exactly the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
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