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Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN4 optionsResearch 1h ago
Flávio Bolsonaro <4% 37%Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8% 36%Lula da Silva <4% 19%Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12% 7%
4 options · in level order
OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
4 open levels, in level order. +4 more on Polymarket For information purposes only. Not investment advice.
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12%7%7%0
Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8%36%32%−4
Flávio Bolsonaro <4%37%39%+2
Lula da Silva <4%19%20%+1
AI analysts' average · Flávio Bolsonaro <4%
39%
2 pts above the market · 2 AI analysts
Biggest gap
Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8%: AI 32% vs market 36%, 4 pts below
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
For information purposes only. Not investment advice.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionHoldingTiers 1–2
Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8%98 · 1
Flávio Bolsonaro <4%98 · 1
Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12%41 · 3
Lula da Silva <4%44 · 0
Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
- Resolution criteria
- The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If a candidate other than Flávio Bolsonaro or Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva receives the most valid votes in the second round, or if the top two candidates receive exactly the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
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Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.
