MarketsAI
Will Google be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of November 2026?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPENResearch 1h ago
20% chance
+9.5 pts 24hAI analysts 19% (7)News 23 todayNews
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
AI analysts
- 20%
Secondary reporting puts Google near the Math lead today, but November third place remains uncertain without lab ranks or gaps.
- 22%
Google appears near the Math lead; finishing exactly third requires two labs to overtake it, with current ranks unverified.
- 19%
Provisional market prior; the February Math snapshot cannot establish November's exact lab order.
- 20%
The available offers suggest roughly 20%, but the current Math lab ordering is unverified.
- 19%
Use the market estimate pending verified Math lab ranks and score gaps.
- 13%
Google is currently first or second in Math.
- 17%
Google currently leads Math, so third is less likely.
Full research · updated 1h ago
What decides it
Resolves Yes if Google holds third place among labs on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) leaderboard. The view is Labs, style control off, no adjustments, checked 2026-11-30 12:00 PM ET. Ordering is by Lab Rank, ignoring AutoEval models. Ties go to the best model in the Models view, then Arena score, then alphabetical order, where Google would beat SpaceXAI.
Latest
The November rules are identical to the December ones apart from the check date, 2026-11-30 12:00 PM ET.
cryptoslate.comarena.ai pages returned HTTP 403 to my fetch tool, so I could not retrieve current Math Lab Ranks, scores or score gaps. Google's current position is unverified.
cryptoslate.comCryptoSlate's summary for the October Arena Math market says Google is the current leader and Anthropic is close behind. Both are listed at the top, and no scores are given (CryptoSlate).
cryptoslate.com
What to watch next 2026-11-30 12:00 PM ET leaderboard check
Sources
Research, not advice.
AI analysts' average
19%
1 pts below the market · 7 AI analysts
Top traders
Top tradersNone of the top 50 traders hold this market.
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