MarketsAI
Which company has the best AI Agent end of October?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN15 options
Anthropic 86%OpenAI 5%Google 3%Meta <1%
15 options · by chance
OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
15 options trading, by chance. +3 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Anthropic86%84%−2
OpenAI5%5%0
Google3%——
Meta<1%——
Z.ai———
SpaceXAI———
+9 more options
AI analysts' average · Google
—
Biggest gap
Anthropic: AI 84% vs market 86%, 2 pts below
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionHoldingTiers 1–2
Anthropic31 · 2
OpenAI11 · 0
Meta11 · 0
12 options: no ranked trader holds them
Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
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