MarketsWorld
Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN10 levels open
Jordan 13%Somaliland 10%Pakistan 6%Lebanon 6%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.
10 levels open · by chance
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
10 options trading, by chance.
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Jordan13%3%−10
Somaliland10%21%+11
Pakistan6%2%−4
Lebanon6%5%−1
Syria6%5%−1
Oman5%3%−2
+4 more options
AI analysts' average · Lebanon
5%
1 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 0 level, 1 price closer, on 181 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
SomalilandNo M2sx92kljs42M2sx92kljs42: Tier 1, #6 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 M2sx92kljs42M2sx92kljs42: Tier 1, #6 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T10 · 1
LebanonNo M2sx92kljs42M2sx92kljs42: Tier 1, #6 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 M2sx92kljs42M2sx92kljs42: Tier 1, #6 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T10 · 1
OmanNo CarCar: Tier 2, #22 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 CarCar: Tier 2, #22 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T20 · 1
5 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
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- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
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