MarketsPolitics
Who will be arrested before 2027?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN6 levels open
Tom Homan 8%Lee Jun-seok 8%Adam Schiff 3%Pam Bondi 3%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.
6 levels open · by chance
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
6 options trading, by chance. +18 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Tom Homan8%2%−6
Lee Jun-seok8%——
Adam Schiff3%3%0
Pam Bondi3%2%−1
Barack Obama2%1%−1
John Kerry2%1%−1
AI analysts' average · Lee Jun-seok
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- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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