How do I trade on "Will Lionel Messi finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?"?

Trade this market based on your view. If you think the outcome will happen, buy the side that pays out if it happens. If you think it won't, buy the side that pays out if it doesn't. Prices reflect the market's estimated probability.

When does this market resolve?

Markets resolve automatically based on real-world data. Check the resolution date shown on the market page.

Ballon d'Or 2026: 2nd Place

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN4 optionsCloses Jan 1, 2027Research 2h ago

Polymarket price · top 4 of 4 options

Kylian Mbappé 69%Lamine Yamal 16%Harry Kane 13%Lionel Messi 5%

4 options · by chance

OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

Kylian Mbappé69%+0.5 pts52%none

Lamine Yamal16%+3.5 pts14%1 · 0

Harry Kane13%−4.0 pts27%none

Lionel Messi5%+2.8 pts6%none

4 options trading, by chance. +26 more on Polymarket For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 2h ago

OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

Kylian Mbappé69%52%−17

Lamine Yamal16%14%−2

Harry Kane13%27%+14

Lionel Messi5%6%+1

AI analysts' average · Lionel Messi

1 pts above the market · 1 AI analyst

Biggest gap

Kylian Mbappé: AI 52% vs market 69%, 17 pts below

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

Polymarket's traders in this topic by 3-month profit

OptionHoldingTiers 1–2

Lamine Yamal11 · 0

3 options: no ranked trader holds them

Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 4 options

Resolution criteria: This market will resolve according to the player who finishes in 2nd place in the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking. The 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony is scheduled to take place in London on October 26, 2026. If two or more players are tied for 2nd place in the award ranking, resolution will follow France Football's (the award organizer, in partnership with UEFA) official ranking. Any players tied at the same placement with no further official distinction will be resolved alphabetically by name. If no 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking is published by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from France Football and/or UEFA, including the official Ballon d'Or announcement; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.

How markets resolve

Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

Ballon d'Or 2026: 2nd Place

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN4 optionsCloses Jan 1, 2027Research 2h ago

Polymarket price · top 4 of 4 options

Kylian Mbappé 69%Lamine Yamal 16%Harry Kane 13%Lionel Messi 5%

4 options · by chance

OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

Kylian Mbappé69%+0.5 pts52%none

Lamine Yamal16%+3.5 pts14%1 · 0

Harry Kane13%−4.0 pts27%none

Lionel Messi5%+2.8 pts6%none

4 options trading, by chance. +26 more on Polymarket For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 2h ago

OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

Kylian Mbappé69%52%−17

Lamine Yamal16%14%−2

Harry Kane13%27%+14

Lionel Messi5%6%+1

AI analysts' average · Lionel Messi

1 pts above the market · 1 AI analyst

Biggest gap

Kylian Mbappé: AI 52% vs market 69%, 17 pts below

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

Polymarket's traders in this topic by 3-month profit

OptionHoldingTiers 1–2

Lamine Yamal11 · 0

3 options: no ranked trader holds them

Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 4 options

Resolution criteria: This market will resolve according to the player who finishes in 2nd place in the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking. The 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony is scheduled to take place in London on October 26, 2026. If two or more players are tied for 2nd place in the award ranking, resolution will follow France Football's (the award organizer, in partnership with UEFA) official ranking. Any players tied at the same placement with no further official distinction will be resolved alphabetically by name. If no 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking is published by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from France Football and/or UEFA, including the official Ballon d'Or announcement; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.

How markets resolve

Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

Ballon d'Or 2026: 2nd Place

1AI analysts

2Smart moneySmart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.

Related Markets

Ballon d'Or 2026: 2nd Place

1AI analysts

2Smart moneySmart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.

Related Markets

AI analysts

AI analysts