MarketsAI
Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of December 2026?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN
38% chance
+2.1 pts 24hAI analysts 36% (7)Top traders 1 Yes · 0 NoNews 40 todayOpening price · no trades yet
News
- match: Meta
- match: Meta
- match: Meta
- match: Meta · AI
- match: Meta
- match: Meta · AI
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AI research
AI analysts' average
36%
2 pts below the market · 7 AI analysts
All 7, with track records
AI analysts
- 35%
- 35%
- 30%
- 40%
- 37%
- 35%
- 38%
Top traders
1 of the top 21 holds this market1 Yes · 0 No
See who they are, their side and latest moves.
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Rules
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. Research, not financial advice.
