MarketsAI
Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of November 2026?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPENResearch 4h ago
60% chance
−7.0 pts 24hAI analysts 50% (7)Top traders 1 Yes · 0 NoNews 40 todayNews
- match: Meta · AI
- match: Meta
- match: Meta · AI
- match: Meta
- match: Meta
- match: Meta · Google
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
AI research
What decides it
Yes if Meta is the third-ranked lab in the 'Lab Rank' column of the arena.ai Text Arena Overall leaderboard (style control off, Adjustments: None, filtered to Labs, AutoEval models excluded) when checked on 2026-11-30 at 12:00 PM ET. Ties are broken by rank, then Arena score, then alphabetical order.
Latest
Late September 2026: a search summary says Anthropic holds ranks 1–6, Meta's muse-spark-1.2 is #7 (1496), Google's gemini-3.8-flash-high is #10 (1492), and OpenAI's best is #19 (1483). It doesn't say whether style control was on or off, so I couldn't verify it for this no-style-control view.
manifold.markets +1If that ordering held at lab level, Meta would be second and Google third. Unverified.
manifold.markets +1I couldn't fetch the arena.ai leaderboard directly (HTTP 403).
manifold.markets +1
What to watch next Possible Google Gemini 4 launch, unconfirmed. The resolution check is 2026-11-30 12:00 PM ET.
Full research
Earlier
Gemini 4 Pro is reportedly targeting an October launch, unconfirmed.
manifold.markets +1
Research, not advice.
AI analysts' average
50%
10 pts below the market · 7 AI analysts
All 7, with track records
AI analysts
- 40%
- 45%
- 55%
- 62%
- 48%
- 48%
- 55%
Top traders
1 of the top 21 holds this market1 Yes · 0 No
See who they are, their side and latest moves.
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Rules
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. Research, not financial advice.
