How do I trade on "Will Michelle Monaghan be nominated for Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?"?

Trade this market based on your view. If you think the outcome will happen, buy the side that pays out if it happens. If you think it won't, buy the side that pays out if it doesn't. Prices reflect the market's estimated probability.

When does this market resolve?

Markets resolve automatically based on real-world data. Check the resolution date shown on the market page.

Oscars 2027: Best Actress Nominations

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN22 levels openCloses Mar 15, 2027Research 1h ago

Polymarket price · the 4 levels nearest 50%

Olivia Wilde 68%Renate Reinsve 58%Virginie Efira 47%Ruth Madeley 47%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.

22 levels open · by chance

OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

Julianne Moore95%—89%none

Inde Navarrette79%−4.0 pts61%none

Olivia Wilde68%+7.5 pts65%1 · 0

Sandra Hüller68%+7.5 pts58%none

Renate Reinsve58%+14.5 pts80%none

Virginie Efira47%−2.5 pts26%1 · 0

Ruth Madeley47%+4.0 pts22%none

Rosalind Eleazar13%−5.0 pts20%none

Emily Blunt11%+1.3 pts18%none

Michelle Monaghan8%+3.9 pts2%none

Mikey Madison7%−1.0 pts10%0 · 1

Joan Collins7%+2.4 pts1%none

Sophie Okonedo7%−4.9 pts8%none

Natalie Portman7%—4%0 · 1

Michelle Williams6%−0.4 pts16%0 · 1

Cynthia Erivo6%—9%none

Daisy Edgar-Jones6%−0.2 pts4%none

Laura Linney5%+0.7 pts3%none

Dakota Johnson5%+0.2 pts4%0 · 1

Zendaya4%−0.2 pts5%0 · 1

Penélope Cruz4%—1%0 · 1

Kirsten Dunst1%—2%none

22 options trading, by chance. +4 more on Polymarket For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 1h ago

OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

Julianne Moore95%89%−6

Inde Navarrette79%61%−18

Olivia Wilde68%65%−3

Sandra Hüller68%58%−10

Renate Reinsve58%80%+22

Virginie Efira47%26%−21

+16 more options

AI analysts' average · Michelle Monaghan

6 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst

Biggest gap

Ruth Madeley: AI 22% vs market 47%, 25 pts below

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

News

1d
#OscarsSoWhite … again? The post-‘Sinners’ Oscar season falls short on diversity
Gold Derby
1d
12 films from major festivals that could define the race for the 2027 Oscars
Vogue Adria
2d
Oscar Predictions via Feinberg Forecast: Scott’s Mid-October Charts and Dissection of the Race
The Hollywood Reporter
3d
A Post-Film Festival Analysis of the 2027 Oscar Contenders
Matthew Huff | Substack
6d
Zendaya + A24 = Oscar? How her upcoming films with Alex Garland and Barry Jenkins could be a path to gold
Gold Derby

Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.

Polymarket's traders in this topic by 3-month profit · updated 1h ago

OptionHoldingTiers 1–2

Olivia Wilde11 · 0

Virginie Efira11 · 0

Mikey Madison10 · 1

Natalie Portman10 · 1

Michelle Williams10 · 1

Dakota Johnson10 · 1

Zendaya10 · 1

Penélope Cruz10 · 1

14 options: no ranked trader holds them

Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 22 options

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed actress is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Actress. If an actress is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actress when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.Show rulesHide rules

Resolution criteria: The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed actress is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Actress. If an actress is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actress when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.

How markets resolve

Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

Oscars 2027: Best Actress Nominations

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN22 levels openCloses Mar 15, 2027Research 1h ago

Polymarket price · the 4 levels nearest 50%

Olivia Wilde 68%Renate Reinsve 58%Virginie Efira 47%Ruth Madeley 47%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.

22 levels open · by chance

OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

Julianne Moore95%—89%none

Inde Navarrette79%−4.0 pts61%none

Olivia Wilde68%+7.5 pts65%1 · 0

Sandra Hüller68%+7.5 pts58%none

Renate Reinsve58%+14.5 pts80%none

Virginie Efira47%−2.5 pts26%1 · 0

Ruth Madeley47%+4.0 pts22%none

Rosalind Eleazar13%−5.0 pts20%none

Emily Blunt11%+1.3 pts18%none

Michelle Monaghan8%+3.9 pts2%none

Mikey Madison7%−1.0 pts10%0 · 1

Joan Collins7%+2.4 pts1%none

Sophie Okonedo7%−4.9 pts8%none

Natalie Portman7%—4%0 · 1

Michelle Williams6%−0.4 pts16%0 · 1

Cynthia Erivo6%—9%none

Daisy Edgar-Jones6%−0.2 pts4%none

Laura Linney5%+0.7 pts3%none

Dakota Johnson5%+0.2 pts4%0 · 1

Zendaya4%−0.2 pts5%0 · 1

Penélope Cruz4%—1%0 · 1

Kirsten Dunst1%—2%none

22 options trading, by chance. +4 more on Polymarket For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 1h ago

OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

Julianne Moore95%89%−6

Inde Navarrette79%61%−18

Olivia Wilde68%65%−3

Sandra Hüller68%58%−10

Renate Reinsve58%80%+22

Virginie Efira47%26%−21

+16 more options

AI analysts' average · Michelle Monaghan

6 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst

Biggest gap

Ruth Madeley: AI 22% vs market 47%, 25 pts below

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

News

1d
#OscarsSoWhite … again? The post-‘Sinners’ Oscar season falls short on diversity
Gold Derby
1d
12 films from major festivals that could define the race for the 2027 Oscars
Vogue Adria
2d
Oscar Predictions via Feinberg Forecast: Scott’s Mid-October Charts and Dissection of the Race
The Hollywood Reporter
3d
A Post-Film Festival Analysis of the 2027 Oscar Contenders
Matthew Huff | Substack
6d
Zendaya + A24 = Oscar? How her upcoming films with Alex Garland and Barry Jenkins could be a path to gold
Gold Derby

Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.

Polymarket's traders in this topic by 3-month profit · updated 1h ago

OptionHoldingTiers 1–2

Olivia Wilde11 · 0

Virginie Efira11 · 0

Mikey Madison10 · 1

Natalie Portman10 · 1

Michelle Williams10 · 1

Dakota Johnson10 · 1

Zendaya10 · 1

Penélope Cruz10 · 1

14 options: no ranked trader holds them

Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 22 options

Resolution criteria: The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed actress is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Actress. If an actress is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actress when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.

How markets resolve

Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

Oscars 2027: Best Actress Nominations

1AI analysts

2News

3Smart moneySmart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 22 options

Related Markets

Oscars 2027: Best Actress Nominations

1AI analysts

2News

3Smart moneySmart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 22 options

Related Markets

AI analysts

News

AI analysts

News