MarketsClimate
Will more than 8 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026?
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OPENResearch 3h ago
53% chance
−7.5 pts 24hAI analysts 54% (7)Top traders 1 Yes · 0 NoAI research
What decides it
Resolves Yes if the CMA Tropical Cyclone Data Center 'Landfalling TCs' page lists more than 8 tropical cyclones (9 or more, any intensity, each counted once) as making landfall in China in calendar 2026. If the page is unavailable or not updated by 2027-06-30, the Typhoon Committee report for 2026 is used.
Latest
2026-08: Narra made landfalls in Hainan and then Guangdong. Around 2026-08-24, three storms made landfall at once and a Level 4 emergency was declared (MGR Online).
en.mgronline.com2026: The National Climate Centre forecast 7-9 landfalling typhoons for the year (search summary).
www.malaymail.com +2I did not find a current count of CMA-listed 2026 landfalls. A running tally would need CMA's page or a news tally.
www.malaymail.com +2
What to watch next CMA Best Track Dataset update for 2026 and the Typhoon Committee 2026 report, both expected in 2027.
Full research
Earlier
The CMA reported 20 named storms in 2026 up to that date, above the usual 13.4 for January-August (search summary). Narra was the 19th and Gaenari the 20th.
www.malaymail.com +2Typhoon Noul made landfall in Guangdong and was China's strongest typhoon of 2026 up to then (Malay Mail).
www.malaymail.com
Research, not advice.
AI analysts' average
54%
1 pts above the market · 7 AI analysts
All 7, with track records
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Top traders
1 of the top 11 holds this market1 Yes · 0 No
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Rules
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026. All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall. One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No". If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. Research, not financial advice.
