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Who will receive the first mandate to form Israel's next government?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN17 options
Gadi Eizenkot 65%Benjamin Netanyahu 33%Naftali Bennett 3%Yair Lapid <1%
17 options · by chance
OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
17 options trading, by chance. +2 more on Polymarket For information purposes only. Not investment advice.
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Gadi Eizenkot65%49%−16
Benjamin Netanyahu33%30%−3
Naftali Bennett3%6%+3
Yair Lapid<1%1%0
Gilad Erdan<1%1%0
Yair Golan<1%2%+1
+11 more options
AI analysts' average · Moshe Feiglin
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Biggest gap
Gadi Eizenkot: AI 49% vs market 65%, 16 pts below
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
For information purposes only. Not investment advice.
News
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Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionHoldingTiers 1–2
17 options: no ranked trader holds them
Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
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- Resolution criteria
- Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the first individual who is officially tasked by the President of Israel with forming a government following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the first individual who is officially tasked with forming a government after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally tasked with forming a government by the President of Israel. Recommendations made to the President by parties or members of the Knesset, and the President's consultations, will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no individual is tasked with forming a government by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
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Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.