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Will OpenAI be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPENResearch 1h ago
59% chance
−5.0 pts 24hAI analysts 58% (7)Top traders 2 Yes · 0 NoNews 34 todayNews
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AI analysts
- 60%
Secondary summaries suggest Anthropic leads and OpenAI is competitive behind it, but the required Agent Labs ranks remain unverified.
- 65%
Secondary reporting places OpenAI second in agents, with two weeks of ranking uncertainty remaining.
- 60%
Secondary evidence places Anthropic first and OpenAI among the next contenders, but the resolving Labs table is unverified.
- 59%
Unverified summaries suggest OpenAI trails Anthropic, but do not establish second place among labs.
- 55%
Anthropic leads Agent Arena; OpenAI vs Google for second is unverified.
- 55%
Anthropic is reportedly first on Agent Arena; OpenAI's second place is unverified.
- 50%
No data on the agent leaderboard.
Full research · updated 1h ago
What decides it
Yes if OpenAI holds second place among companies on the arena.ai Agent Arena leaderboard (Labs filter, 'Rank' column, AutoEval models excluded) when checked on 2026-10-31 at 12:00 PM ET. Ties go to the best model in the 'Models' view, then to the model listed higher, then to alphabetical order. Otherwise No.
Latest
I could not open arena.ai/leaderboard/agent directly (HTTP 403), so I have not seen the Labs table, its ranks or its scores.
cryptobriefing.com +1A search summary (cryptobriefing / edgex news pages, undated and unverified) says Anthropic's models hold the top Agent Arena positions. It lists 'Claude Fable 5.1 (Max)', 'Claude Opus 5.5' and 'Claude Sonnet 5.5'. OpenAI's 'GPT-6 Astra' and 'GPT-6.1 Sol' follow, and Google's 'Gemini 4 …
cryptobriefing.com +1The same summary says GPT-6.1 Sol recently entered the rankings. Model names and rankings are unverified and may be unreliable.
cryptobriefing.com +1
What to watch next Resolution check is 2026-10-31 12:00 PM ET. Any new model releases before then could change the Labs ranks.
Research, not advice.
AI analysts' average
58%
1 pts below the market · 7 AI analysts
Top traders
Top traders2 of the top 22 AI rankings traders hold this2 Yes · 0 No
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