MarketsAI
Will OpenAI’s valuation be at least $1.30T at the end of November 2026?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPENResearch 1h ago
40% chance
−0.5 pts 24hAI analysts 32% (6)News 40 todayOpening price · no trades yet
News
- match: OpenAI
- match: OpenAI
- match: OpenAI
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- match: OpenAI
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AI research
What decides it
Resolves Yes if OpenAI's valuation, as given by the Nasdaq Private Market (NPM) Price for the last trading day of November 2026 (Nov 30), is at least $1.30T. If OpenAI lists publicly before then, its public market cap on that day is used instead.
Latest
The NPM data page (fe.secondmarket.com) returned no readable data when fetched, so I could not confirm the current NPM Price for OpenAI.
fe.secondmarket.comSearch summaries put the source market odds for OpenAI reaching $1.25T by Dec 31 at about 38.5% and $1.5T at about 22%. I could not verify the date of those figures. They are market prices, not valuation data.
www.startuphub.ai +2OpenAI confidentially filed an S-1 with the SEC. Reports say it is now weighing a 2027 listing rather than 2026, targeting a valuation near $1T (startuphub.ai summary).
www.startuphub.ai
What to watch next NPM Price for Nov 30, 2026, published around 1 PM ET on Dec 1, 2026. Resolution can be extended to Dec 3.
Full research
What decides it
Resolves Yes if OpenAI's valuation, as given by the Nasdaq Private Market (NPM) Price for the last trading day of November 2026 (Nov 30), is at least $1.30T. If OpenAI lists publicly before then, its public market cap on that day is used instead. A value exactly on a bracket boundary goes to the higher bracket. Later revisions to NPM data don't count unless they correct clearly erroneous data.
Earlier
OpenAI closed a $122B equity round at an $852B post-money valuation (search summaries of news reports).
www.startuphub.ai +2
Research, not advice.
AI analysts' average
32%
8 pts below the market · 6 AI analysts
All 6, with track records
AI analysts
- 25%
- 38%
- 32%
- 35%
- 25%
- 38%
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Rules
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve according to OpenAI's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for the last trading day of the specified month. If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for the last trading day of the specified month by 1:00 PM ET on the day following the last trading day of the specified month, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on the third business day following the last trading day of the specified month. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider the company’s public market capitalization on the last trading day of the specified month. Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data. The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. Research, not financial advice.
