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What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in October 2026?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN14 levels open1 closedCloses Nov 1, 2026Research 5h ago

Polymarket price · the 4 levels nearest 50%

↑ $770 70%↓ $750 48%↑ $780 31%↓ $740 23%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.

14 levels open

OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
↑ $8403%−0.1 pts1%none
↑ $8301%−0.1 pts1%none
↑ $8203%−0.1 pts2%none
↑ $8104%−0.3 pts4%1 · 0
↑ $8004%−3.0 pts8%1 · 0
↑ $7908%−17.0 pts25%1 · 2
↑ $78031%−34.7 pts65%none
↑ $77070%−2.5 pts68%none
↓ $76086%+44.3 pts50%1 · 1
↓ $75048%+28.0 pts18%1 · 2
↓ $74023%+15.5 pts8%1 · 0
↓ $73013%+6.5 pts4%none
↓ $7207%+3.6 pts6%none
↓ $7105%+2.3 pts3%none
1 closed level
↓ $770>99%+15.9 pts85%—

14 options trading. +1 more on Polymarket For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

1AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 5h ago
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
↑ $8403%1%−2
↑ $8301%1%0
↑ $8203%2%−1
↑ $8104%4%0
↑ $8004%8%+4
↑ $7908%25%+17
+8 more options

AI analysts' average · ↑ $820

2%

1 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst

Biggest gap

↓ $760: AI 50% vs market 86%, 36 pts below

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

2News

  • 5h
    S&P 500 Opens Down 68 Points as Risk-Off Selling Hits the Market
    24/7 Wall St.
  • 5h
    US Stock Market Today: S&P 500, Dow, Nasdaq Open Lower; Meta Erases $100 Billion In Value On AI Concerns
    NDTV Profit
  • 6h
    US Stock Market Today: Dow Futures Slips 200 Points While S&P 500 Falls 0.09% and Nasdaq Edges Lower 1.06% as AI Stocks Rebound, Oil Prices Tops $111, Spotify Rises; Check What Investors Should Know
    The Sunday Guardian
  • 7h
    US Stock Market Today: S&P 500 Futures Fall On Hot UK Inflation Surprise
    Yahoo Finance Singapore
  • 7h
    Stay Ahead of the Game With S&P Global (SPGI) Q3 Earnings: Wall Street's Insights on Key Metrics
    Yahoo Finance
  • 7h
    S&P Global Expands AI-Powered Capabilities Across Private Markets
    PR Newswire
  • 8h
    S&P 500 Futures Decline in Premarket Trading; Intercorp Finl Svcs, Allegion Lead
    Barron's
  • 9h
    S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100: Asia Selloff and Tesla Weakness Pressure Futures Despite Meta Beat
    FXEmpire
  • 9h
    E-nano S&P 500 Futures,Dec-2026 (NES=F) stock price, news, quote and history
    Yahoo Finance Australia
  • 9h
    Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures fall as traders assess Tesla, Meta earnings
    Yahoo Finance
  • 9h
    3 S&P 500 Stocks Just Made New 52-Week Lows
    Trefis
  • 9h
    Stock Market Today: S&P 500, Dow Futures Drop Following Asian Market Sell-off, Middle East Tensions — NFL
    Benzinga
  • 9h
    24 S&P 500 Stocks Hit 52-Week Highs On Wednesday
    Trefis
  • 11h
    The S&P 500’s Race to 8,000 to be Decided by Q3 Earnings and Inflation Outlook
    HackerNoon
  • 16h
    How Are Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq Futures Trading After META, TSLA Earnings?
    Stocktwits
  • 20h
    S&P 500, Nasdaq Gain, Powered By Meta, Tesla Stock — SPCX, META, TSLA, SKYD, IBM In Focus
    Yahoo Finance
  • 20h
    Mexico stocks higher at close of trade; S&P/BMV IPC up 1.43%
    Investing.com
  • 21h
    Stock Market Today: Nasdaq logs 1.1% gain; S&P 500 and Dow end higher as AI plays and tech bounce; oil climbs in after-hours trade as investors monitor Middle East headlines; Meta and Tesla earnings on deck
    MarketWatch
  • 22h
    Dow Climbs 360, Nasdaq Adds 278, S&P 500 Gains 45
    TV News Check
  • 23h
    The 13 Best S&P 500 Stocks to Buy Now, According to Barchart’s Screeners
    Barchart.com
  • 23h
    Update: Tech-Led Rally Lifts Nasdaq, Extends S&P 500's Advance to Third Day
    Yahoo Finance
  • 23h
    S&P/TSX composite rises more than 200 points, while U.S. markets also gain ground
    Yahoo! Finance Canada
  • 23h
    S&P 500 Closes Up 0.46% as Nasdaq Leads the Market Higher
    24/7 Wall St.
  • 23h
    Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq rise as tech rallies, SpaceX stock surges nearly 8%
    Yahoo Finance
  • 1d
    Johnson & Johnson Raised Its Dividend Every Year. Why Did It Trail the S&P 500?
    Yahoo Finance
  • 1d
    S&P 500 Most-Active Stocks on Oct. 21: Netflix, Super Micro Computer and AT&T Lead
    ChartMill
  • 1d
    Why is US Stock Market Up Today? Dow Jones Gains 200 Points, S&P 500 Rises 0.51%, Nasdaq Climbs 1.04% as SpaceX Rally, AI Demand & Fed Rate Concerns Ahead of Big Tech Earnings — Check Latest Updates
    The Sunday Guardian
  • 1d
    NVIDIA and Micron Alone Now Contribute 36% of S&P 500 Earnings Growth as Historic Market Concentration Grows
    Yahoo Finance
  • 1d
    Canada Stock Market (TSX) Today, October 21, 2026: Why Is the S&P/TSX Composite Rising? Bombardier and BlackBerry Rally as Oil Tops $110 – Check Top Gainers, Losers and Stocks to Watch
    The Sunday Guardian
  • 1d
    S&P 500 Forecast: SPX rises after SpaceX jumps, Meta up next
    StoneX
  • 1d
    US Stock Market Today: Dow Jones Futures Edge Higher, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Futures Rise as AI Stocks Rebound, Brent Crude Tops $11; Check What Investors Should Know
    The Sunday Guardian
  • 1d
    S&P 500 Futures Up in Premarket Trading; Amkor Technology, Essent Group Lead
    Barron's
  • 1d
    Micron and Nvidia Are the 2 Biggest Drivers of S&P 500 Earnings Growth. Are Their Stocks Buys?
    Yahoo Finance
  • 1d
    The Top 15 Stocks in the S&P 500 Are Now 47% of the Value. In 2000 Bubble, It Was 27%
    Yahoo Finance
  • 1d
    Nasdaq, S&P 500 Futures Climb After SpaceX’s Blowout Quarter: SMCI, NFLX, GE Stocks In Focus
    Yahoo Finance
  • 1d
    S&P 500, Dow Gain As Earnings Season Sets In, While SpaceX Aids Nasdaq After-Hours — SPCX, BA, MMM, NFLX, QCOM In Focus
    Yahoo Finance
  • 1d
    S&P 500 Rises to 7,712.90 as Health Care Hits a Record High and Oil Retreats From Five-Month Peak
    BBN Times
  • 1d
    Dow Rallies 530, Nasdaq Slips 6, S&P 500 Gains 22
    TV News Check
  • 2d
    Markets News, Oct. 20, 2026: Dow Closes Up 500 Points; S&P 500 Rises, Nasdaq Ticks Lower; Oil Prices Pull Back
    Investopedia
  • 2d
    This Stock Is Worst Performer In S&P 500 Today
    Investor's Business Daily
  • 2d
    S&P 500 Could Hit 8,300 By May 2027, Says Morgan Stanley Investment Chief Predicting ‘Final Innings’ Of Stock Market Correction
    Yahoo Finance
  • 2d
    Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson Says Market Correction Nearly Over, Sees S&P 500 Hitting 8,500
    Yahoo Finance
  • 2d
    S&P 500 Rebounds as Big Bank Stocks Climb, SpaceX Results Loom
    Advisor Perspectives
  • 2d
    Equifax Is Today’s Best Stock in the S&P 500. VantageScore Has Something to Do With That.
    Barron's
  • 2d
    The S&P 500 Mirage: What Dalio, Damodaran & Burry See Beneath The Rally (NYSEARCA:SPY)
    Seeking Alpha
  • 2d
    Analysts Estimate S&P Global (SPGI) to Report a Decline in Earnings: What to Look Out for
    Yahoo Finance
  • 2d
    Investors look to earnings to reset the bull market. The key level to watch on the S&P 500
    CNBC
  • 2d
    IVV vs. SPY: Which S&P 500 ETF Is the Better Buy for Long-Term Investors?
    The Motley Fool
  • 2d
    US Stock Market Today: S&P 500 Futures Climb On Strong Factory And Earnings Hopes
    Yahoo Finance
  • 2d
    E-mini S&P 500 Futures Overview
    CME Group
  • 2d
    $SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$ most likely down from here........their little game
    Moomoo
  • 2d
    Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq Edge Higher Amid Tech Rebound As Q3 Earnings Season Forges Ahead: DJT, AMZN, CBRS, CRWV Stocks In Focus
    Yahoo Finance
  • 2d
    $SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$ FYI, descending channels tend to break to the upside. There's bullish divergence on the 4-hour that may not have played out fully yet, and the daily RSI got close to OS last Friday, plus it was near the bottom of the BBs. HAS to
    Moomoo
  • 2d
    Stock market today: Dow slips, S&P 500, Nasdaq rise as tech stocks rebound
    Yahoo Finance
  • 2d
    $SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$ beautiful thank u SPY
    Moomoo
  • 2d
    Markets News, Oct. 19, 2026: Nasdaq, S&P 500 Start Week With Gains as Tech Stocks Rebound
    Investopedia
  • 3d
    Are “Magnificent 7” Companies Still Top Contributors to S&P 500 Earnings Growth for Q3?
    FactSet Insight
  • 3d
    US Stock Market Today LIVE: Dow Jones Slips 0.13%, S&P 500 Rises 0.38% & Nasdaq Edges Higher as Oil Surge, Treasury Yields Fall, Tech Sell-Off & Fed Risk Persist — Check What Investors Should Know
    The Sunday Guardian
  • 3d
    S&P 500, Nasdaq open higher as AI stocks rebound ahead of major earnings
    Yahoo Finance
  • 3d
    The S&P 500's Worst Day Was 39 Years Ago Today. Should You Buy When Stocks Crash?
    Yahoo Finance
  • 3d
    What State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) Sold: NVIDIA Leads on Thursday
    Yahoo Finance
  • 3d
    A Repeat Of 'Black Monday' Would Send The S&P 500 Down More Than 1,500 Points And Wipe Out More Than $13 Trillion In Stock Market Value
    24/7 Wall St.
  • 3d
    Stock Market: Will S&P 500 Open Up or Down Today?
    Yahoo Finance
  • 3d
    No ‘Black Monday’? Nasdaq, S&P 500, Dow Futures Spike As Big Tech Earnings Loom This Week — Retail Stays Cautious
    Yahoo Finance
  • 3d
    S&P 500 Annual Dividend Index Overview
    CME Group
  • 4d
    Opinion: There is a silent market rotation inside the S&P 500 that’s warning of more weakness ahead
    MarketWatch
  • 5d
    State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) options chain
    Yahoo Finance Australia
  • 6d
    S&P 500 Return 2026: SPY Up 13.2%, Median Stock Only 5.7%
    Opening Bell Daily
  • 6d
    These S&P 500 stocks lead in capital efficiency - BofA (SPY:NYSEARCA)
    Seeking Alpha
  • 6d
    US Stock Market Today LIVE: Dow Jones Gains 0.60%, S&P 500 Rises 0.10% & Nasdaq Falls 0.40% as AI Chip Selloff, Oil Prices Near $106; Check What Investors Should Know
    The Sunday Guardian
  • 6d
    US Stock Market Today: Dow Jones Futures Rise 0.39%, S&P 500 Futures Gain 0.16% & Nasdaq 100 Futures Fall 0.08% as AI Debt Fears; Check What Investors Should Know
    The Sunday Guardian
  • 6d
    What State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) Bought: NVDA Leads on Oct. 14
    Yahoo Finance
  • 6d
    S&P 500 ends higher as traders shift from AI to healthcare
    Reuters
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.

3Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.

Polymarket's traders in this topic by 3-month profit · updated 5h ago
OptionHoldingTiers 1–2
↑ $79031 · 2
↓ $75031 · 2
↓ $76021 · 1
↑ $81011 · 0
↑ $80011 · 0
↓ $74011 · 0

8 options: no ranked trader holds them

Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 15 options

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during October 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPY) has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. Prices occurring during pre-market or after-hours trading will not qualify. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the S&P 500 (SPY) "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD?t=1773432000) If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.Show rulesHide rules
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during October 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPY) has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. Prices occurring during pre-market or after-hours trading will not qualify. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the S&P 500 (SPY) "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD?t=1773432000) If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
How markets resolve
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Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

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↑ $820 · Buy YesOption 3 of 14

Polymarket price · live

Yes5¢
No100¢
Trade on Polymarket

Opens Polymarket in a new tab. Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket and never holds your money.

Before you decide · ↑ $820

  • News24 today · latest 5h
  • AI analysts2% · 1 pts below
  • Tiers 1–2none of the top 50
Paper trading · play money

Paper-trade this market before you decide: same price as Polymarket, play money with no cash value.