MarketsBusiness
What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in October 2026?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN14 levels open1 closedResearch 6h ago
↓ $760 80%↑ $770 70%↓ $750 43%↑ $780 35%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.
14 levels open
OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
1 closed level
14 options trading. +1 more on Polymarket For information purposes only. Not investment advice.
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
↑ $8403%1%−2
↑ $8301%1%0
↑ $8203%2%−1
↑ $8104%4%0
↑ $8004%8%+4
↑ $79010%25%+15
+8 more options
AI analysts' average · ↑ $840
1%
2 pts below the market · 3 AI analysts
Biggest gap
↑ $780: AI 65% vs market 35%, 30 pts above
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
For information purposes only. Not investment advice.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionHoldingTiers 1–2
↑ $79031 · 2
↓ $75031 · 2
↓ $76021 · 1
↑ $81011 · 0
↑ $80011 · 0
↓ $74011 · 0
8 options: no ranked trader holds them
Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during October 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPY) has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. Prices occurring during pre-market or after-hours trading will not qualify. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the S&P 500 (SPY) "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD?t=1773432000) If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
Sign in to comment
Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.
