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Ballon d'Or 2026: 3rd Place

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN26 optionsCloses Jan 1, 2027

Polymarket price · top 4 of 26 options

Lamine Yamal 68%Kylian Mbappé 14%Harry Kane 7%Lionel Messi 5%

26 options · by chance

OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
Lamine Yamal68%+4.0 pts51%none
Kylian Mbappé14%−2.0 pts22%1 · 0
Harry Kane7%−2.4 pts10%none
Lionel Messi5%−1.4 pts7%none
Rodri4%−0.1 pts10%none
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia3%−1.0 pts2%—
Fabian Ruiz<1%−1.6 pts3%none
Pau Cubarsi————
Erling Haaland————
Jude Bellingham————
Vinícius Júnior————
Vitinha————
Achraf Hakimi————
Bruno Fernandes————
Luis Diaz————
Lautaro Martinez————
Marc Cucurella————
Gabriel Magalhães————
Sadio Mané————
Marquinhos————
Nuno Mendes————
João Neves————
Julián Quiñones————
William Saliba————
Ferran Torres————
Dayot Upamecano————

26 options trading, by chance. +4 more on Polymarket For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

1AI analysts

6 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Lamine Yamal68%51%−17
Kylian Mbappé14%22%+8
Harry Kane7%10%+3
Lionel Messi5%7%+2
Rodri4%10%+6
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia3%2%−1
+20 more options

AI analysts' average · Sadio Mané

—

Biggest gap

Lamine Yamal: AI 51% vs market 68%, 17 pts below

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

2News

No headlines about this market in the last 7 days.

Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.

3Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.

Polymarket's traders in this topic by 3-month profit
OptionHoldingTiers 1–2
Kylian Mbappé11 · 0

5 options: no ranked trader holds them

Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 26 options

This market will resolve according to the player who finishes in 3rd place in the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking. The 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony is scheduled to take place in London on October 26, 2026. If two or more players are tied for 3rd place in the award ranking, resolution will follow France Football's (the award organizer, in partnership with UEFA) official ranking. Any players tied at the same placement with no further official distinction will be resolved alphabetically by name. If no 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking is published by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from France Football and/or UEFA, including the official Ballon d'Or announcement; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.Show rulesHide rules
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve according to the player who finishes in 3rd place in the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking. The 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony is scheduled to take place in London on October 26, 2026. If two or more players are tied for 3rd place in the award ranking, resolution will follow France Football's (the award organizer, in partnership with UEFA) official ranking. Any players tied at the same placement with no further official distinction will be resolved alphabetically by name. If no 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking is published by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from France Football and/or UEFA, including the official Ballon d'Or announcement; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
How markets resolve
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Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

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Sadio Mané · Buy YesOption 19 of 26

Polymarket price · live

Yes0¢
No—
Trade on Polymarket

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Before you decide · Sadio Mané

  • News0 today
  • AI analystsreviewing
  • Tiers 1–2none of the top 50
Paper trading · play money

Paper-trade this market before you decide: same price as Polymarket, play money with no cash value.