How do I trade on "Will Sam Darnold have 30+ passing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?"?

Trade this market based on your view. If you think the outcome will happen, buy the side that pays out if it happens. If you think it won't, buy the side that pays out if it doesn't. Prices reflect the market's estimated probability.

When does this market resolve?

Markets resolve automatically based on real-world data. Check the resolution date shown on the market page.

Pro Football: 2026-27 30+ Passing Touchdowns

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN26 levels openCloses Jan 27, 2027Research 1h ago

Polymarket price · the 4 levels nearest 50%

Dak Prescott 53%Matthew Stafford 51%Drake Maye 49%Bryce Young 47%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.

26 levels open · by chance

OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

Jared Goff75%+1.0 pts65%none

Brock Purdy73%−7.0 pts65%none

Trevor Lawrence67%−0.5 pts58%none

Joe Burrow66%—53%none

Dak Prescott53%−2.0 pts45%none

Matthew Stafford51%−1.0 pts50%none

Drake Maye49%−0.5 pts49%none

Bryce Young47%—45%none

Aaron Rodgers46%−1.5 pts48%none

Jordan Love45%−3.5 pts47%none

Tyler Shough40%—43%none

Patrick Mahomes39%−1.5 pts41%none

Josh Allen31%+2.0 pts29%none

C.J. Stroud17%—22%none

Sam Darnold15%+0.5 pts15%none

Bo Nix11%+0.5 pts9%none

Lamar Jackson11%—9%none

Cameron Ward8%—2%none

Malik Willis8%—2%none

Caleb Williams7%—10%none

Baker Mayfield6%+0.2 pts2%none

Jalen Hurts6%—7%none

Justin Herbert5%—5%none

Jayden Daniels5%+0.1 pts3%none

Jaxson Dart2%−0.1 pts2%0 · 1

Fernando Mendoza2%—2%0 · 1

26 options trading, by chance.

AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 1h ago

OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

Jared Goff75%65%−10

Brock Purdy73%65%−8

Trevor Lawrence67%58%−9

Joe Burrow66%53%−13

Dak Prescott53%45%−8

Matthew Stafford51%50%−1

+20 more options

AI analysts' average · Sam Darnold

15%

level with the market · 1 AI analyst

Biggest gap

Joe Burrow: AI 53% vs market 66%, 13 pts below

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

News

No headlines about this market in the last 7 days.

Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.

Polymarket's traders in this topic by 3-month profit · updated 1h ago

OptionHoldingTiers 1–2

Jaxson Dart10 · 1

Fernando Mendoza10 · 1

24 options: no ranked trader holds them

Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 26 options

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the number of passing touchdowns the listed player records during the 2026-27 NFL regular season equals or exceeds 30. Otherwise, the associated market will resolve to "No". Only regular season games count. Playoff games, including Wild Card, Divisional, Conference Championship, and Pro Football Championship games, do not count. If the listed player does not play in the 2026-27 NFL regular season for any reason, the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2026-27 NFL regular season is shortened, truncated, or ends early for any reason, the outcome shall be determined using available official data for completed games. If the 2026-27 NFL regular season is cancelled, postponed after January 26, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or it cannot be determined how many passing touchdowns the listed player recorded within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "50-50". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Show rulesHide rules

Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the number of passing touchdowns the listed player records during the 2026-27 NFL regular season equals or exceeds 30. Otherwise, the associated market will resolve to "No". Only regular season games count. Playoff games, including Wild Card, Divisional, Conference Championship, and Pro Football Championship games, do not count. If the listed player does not play in the 2026-27 NFL regular season for any reason, the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2026-27 NFL regular season is shortened, truncated, or ends early for any reason, the outcome shall be determined using available official data for completed games. If the 2026-27 NFL regular season is cancelled, postponed after January 26, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or it cannot be determined how many passing touchdowns the listed player recorded within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "50-50". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

How markets resolve

Pro Football: 2026-27 30+ Passing Touchdowns

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN26 levels openCloses Jan 27, 2027Research 1h ago

Polymarket price · the 4 levels nearest 50%

Dak Prescott 53%Matthew Stafford 51%Drake Maye 49%Bryce Young 47%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.

26 levels open · by chance

OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

Jared Goff75%+1.0 pts65%none

Brock Purdy73%−7.0 pts65%none

Trevor Lawrence67%−0.5 pts58%none

Joe Burrow66%—53%none

Dak Prescott53%−2.0 pts45%none

Matthew Stafford51%−1.0 pts50%none

Drake Maye49%−0.5 pts49%none

Bryce Young47%—45%none

Aaron Rodgers46%−1.5 pts48%none

Jordan Love45%−3.5 pts47%none

Tyler Shough40%—43%none

Patrick Mahomes39%−1.5 pts41%none

Josh Allen31%+2.0 pts29%none

C.J. Stroud17%—22%none

Sam Darnold15%+0.5 pts15%none

Bo Nix11%+0.5 pts9%none

Lamar Jackson11%—9%none

Cameron Ward8%—2%none

Malik Willis8%—2%none

Caleb Williams7%—10%none

Baker Mayfield6%+0.2 pts2%none

Jalen Hurts6%—7%none

Justin Herbert5%—5%none

Jayden Daniels5%+0.1 pts3%none

Jaxson Dart2%−0.1 pts2%0 · 1

Fernando Mendoza2%—2%0 · 1

26 options trading, by chance.

AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 1h ago

OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

Jared Goff75%65%−10

Brock Purdy73%65%−8

Trevor Lawrence67%58%−9

Joe Burrow66%53%−13

Dak Prescott53%45%−8

Matthew Stafford51%50%−1

+20 more options

AI analysts' average · Sam Darnold

15%

level with the market · 1 AI analyst

Biggest gap

Joe Burrow: AI 53% vs market 66%, 13 pts below

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

News

No headlines about this market in the last 7 days.

Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.

Polymarket's traders in this topic by 3-month profit · updated 1h ago

OptionHoldingTiers 1–2

Jaxson Dart10 · 1

Fernando Mendoza10 · 1

24 options: no ranked trader holds them

Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 26 options

Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the number of passing touchdowns the listed player records during the 2026-27 NFL regular season equals or exceeds 30. Otherwise, the associated market will resolve to "No". Only regular season games count. Playoff games, including Wild Card, Divisional, Conference Championship, and Pro Football Championship games, do not count. If the listed player does not play in the 2026-27 NFL regular season for any reason, the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2026-27 NFL regular season is shortened, truncated, or ends early for any reason, the outcome shall be determined using available official data for completed games. If the 2026-27 NFL regular season is cancelled, postponed after January 26, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or it cannot be determined how many passing touchdowns the listed player recorded within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "50-50". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

How markets resolve

Pro Football: 2026-27 30+ Passing Touchdowns

1AI analysts

2News

3Smart moneySmart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 26 options

Related Markets

Pro Football: 2026-27 30+ Passing Touchdowns

1AI analysts

2News

3Smart moneySmart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 26 options

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