How do I trade on "Will Tao Okamoto be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?"?

Trade this market based on your view. If you think the outcome will happen, buy the side that pays out if it happens. If you think it won't, buy the side that pays out if it doesn't. Prices reflect the market's estimated probability.

When does this market resolve?

Markets resolve automatically based on real-world data. Check the resolution date shown on the market page.

Oscars 2027: Best Supporting Actress Nominations

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN13 levels openCloses Mar 15, 2027Research 2h ago

Polymarket price · the 4 levels nearest 50%

Penélope Cruz 74%Tao Okamoto 71%Amanda Seyfried 57%Mariana di Girolamo 29%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.

13 levels open · by chance

OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

Anne Hathaway88%−1.5 pts79%none

Samantha Morton83%+3.5 pts40%1 · 0

Penélope Cruz74%−4.0 pts75%1 · 0

Tao Okamoto71%+12.0 pts38%none

Amanda Seyfried57%+5.0 pts38%1 · 0

Mariana di Girolamo29%+3.5 pts60%none

Olivia Colman26%+1.0 pts25%none

Parker Posey22%+3.5 pts18%0 · 1

Sandra Hüller21%−11.5 pts26%none

Merritt Wever14%−0.5 pts14%none

Gemma Chan11%−1.0 pts10%none

Zendaya8%—8%none

Isabella Rossellini7%−0.1 pts6%none

13 options trading, by chance. +5 more on Polymarket For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 2h ago

OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

Anne Hathaway88%79%−9

Samantha Morton83%40%−43

Penélope Cruz74%75%+1

Tao Okamoto71%38%−33

Amanda Seyfried57%38%−19

Mariana di Girolamo29%60%+31

+7 more options

AI analysts' average · Tao Okamoto

38%

33 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst

Biggest gap

Samantha Morton: AI 40% vs market 83%, 43 pts below

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

Polymarket's traders in this topic by 3-month profit · updated 2h ago

OptionHoldingTiers 1–2

Samantha Morton11 · 0

Penélope Cruz11 · 0

Amanda Seyfried11 · 0

Parker Posey10 · 1

9 options: no ranked trader holds them

Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 13 options

Resolution criteria: The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed actress is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Supporting Actress. If an actress is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Supporting Actress when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.

How markets resolve

Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

Oscars 2027: Best Supporting Actress Nominations

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN13 levels openCloses Mar 15, 2027Research 2h ago

Polymarket price · the 4 levels nearest 50%

Penélope Cruz 74%Tao Okamoto 71%Amanda Seyfried 57%Mariana di Girolamo 29%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.

13 levels open · by chance

OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

Anne Hathaway88%−1.5 pts79%none

Samantha Morton83%+3.5 pts40%1 · 0

Penélope Cruz74%−4.0 pts75%1 · 0

Tao Okamoto71%+12.0 pts38%none

Amanda Seyfried57%+5.0 pts38%1 · 0

Mariana di Girolamo29%+3.5 pts60%none

Olivia Colman26%+1.0 pts25%none

Parker Posey22%+3.5 pts18%0 · 1

Sandra Hüller21%−11.5 pts26%none

Merritt Wever14%−0.5 pts14%none

Gemma Chan11%−1.0 pts10%none

Zendaya8%—8%none

Isabella Rossellini7%−0.1 pts6%none

13 options trading, by chance. +5 more on Polymarket For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 2h ago

OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

Anne Hathaway88%79%−9

Samantha Morton83%40%−43

Penélope Cruz74%75%+1

Tao Okamoto71%38%−33

Amanda Seyfried57%38%−19

Mariana di Girolamo29%60%+31

+7 more options

AI analysts' average · Tao Okamoto

38%

33 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst

Biggest gap

Samantha Morton: AI 40% vs market 83%, 43 pts below

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

Polymarket's traders in this topic by 3-month profit · updated 2h ago

OptionHoldingTiers 1–2

Samantha Morton11 · 0

Penélope Cruz11 · 0

Amanda Seyfried11 · 0

Parker Posey10 · 1

9 options: no ranked trader holds them

Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 13 options

Resolution criteria: The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed actress is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Supporting Actress. If an actress is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Supporting Actress when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.

How markets resolve

Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

Oscars 2027: Best Supporting Actress Nominations

1AI analysts

3Smart moneySmart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.

Related Markets

Oscars 2027: Best Supporting Actress Nominations

1AI analysts

3Smart moneySmart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.

Related Markets

AI analysts

AI analysts