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What will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit in October 2026?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN15 levels openCloses Nov 1, 2026

Polymarket chance · the 4 levels nearest 50%

↑ $375 85%↓ $360 54%↑ $390 37%↓ $345 21%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.

15 levels open

OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
↑ $480<1%−0.3 pts1%none
↑ $4653%−0.1 pts2%none
↑ $4503%−0.3 pts2%none
↑ $4355%−3.0 pts12%1 · 0
↑ $4208%−4.5 pts28%1 · 0
↑ $40513%−21.0 pts36%none
↑ $39037%−9.5 pts82%1 · 0
↑ $37585%−2.5 pts—none
↓ $36054%+6.5 pts77%none
↓ $34521%−1.5 pts34%0 · 1
↓ $3307%−1.5 pts18%none
↓ $31512%+6.0 pts7%none
↓ $3002%−1.6 pts5%none
↓ $2853%—3%0 · 1
↓ $2702%−0.2 pts2%none

15 options trading.

1AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
↑ $480<1%1%0
↑ $4653%2%−1
↑ $4503%2%−1
↑ $4355%12%+7
↑ $4208%28%+20
↑ $40513%36%+23
+9 more options

AI analysts' average · ↑ $375

—

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

2News

  • 2h
    Tesla Outlook is 'Grim,' Former Hedge Funder Won’t Touch Stock - Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA)
    Benzinga
  • 3h
    Here’s How Much $100 Invested in Tesla Stock Today Could be Worth if Cathie Wood’s Prediction Comes True in 2031
    Yahoo Finance
  • 7h
    Why Tesla's $5 billion capex cut isn't the warning sign AI stock bears think it is
    Yahoo Finance
  • 8h
    Tesla Q3 2026 energy storage revenues fall despite second-highest quarterly deployments
    Energy-Storage.News
  • 9h
    With earnings in rearview mirror, SpaceX-Tesla merger chatter takes center stage
    CNBC
  • 9h
    SpaceX and Tesla Merger Soon? Crypto Prediction Market Punters Are Betting on This Date as Elon Musk Calls the Combination a 'Good Idea'
    Yahoo Finance
  • 10h
    Tesla (TSLA) Stock Could Be Above Fair Value After Merger Talks
    Yahoo Finance
  • 22h
    Tesla skipped the most important shareholder question on its earnings call
    Electrek
  • 1d
    Tesla’s Flying-Car Hype Hits an Earnings Reality Check
    TradingView
  • 1d
    Tesla shares slip after capex cut raises doubts over Musk's AI and robotics push
    Reuters
  • 1d
    Tesla App Gains iPad and iPhone Duo Support
    MacRumors
  • 1d
    Tesla cuts spending before potential SpaceX deal even as Musk bets future on AI, robots
    Reuters
  • 1d
    Tesla Q3 2026 Earnings: Margins Hit 19.6%, Profit Falls
    shattered.io
  • 1d
    Tesla blames battery supply for flat sales, but its prices keep falling
    Electrek
  • 1d
    Tesla starts Optimus robot production in California as profit falls 43%
    TechCrunch
  • 2d
    Tesla reports Q3 earnings beat, free cash flow, and better-than-expected capex
    Yahoo Finance
  • 2d
    Tesla beats earnings projections after Musk floats SpaceX merger plan
    The Guardian
  • 2d
    Tesla beats on earnings and sales even as auto revenue declines
    CNBC
  • 2d
    SpaceX and Tesla Explore Merger to Create a De Facto Elon Inc.
    The New York Times
  • 2d
    Wall St sees Tesla-SpaceX merger as inevitable, but split on price
    Reuters
  • 2d
    SpaceX stock surges after Musk says a merger with Tesla would be ‘a good idea’ | CNN Business
    CNN
  • 3d
    Tesla Roadster flight odds hit 68% as shares fall 2.28%
    scanx.trade
  • 3d
    ARK’s Expected Share Price For Tesla In 2031
    Ark Invest
  • 3d
    Tesla Earnings Preview: $28.3B Q3 Call on Oct. 21
    shattered.io
  • 5d
    Meta, Tesla, Netflix Lead a 70-Company Earnings Week [2026]
    https://tech-insider.org/
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.

3Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.

Polymarket's traders in this topic by 3-month profit
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
↑ $435Yes Dimpled-FoalDimpled-Foal: Tier 1, #8 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 Dimpled-FoalDimpled-Foal: Tier 1, #8 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 · 0
↑ $420Yes Dimpled-FoalDimpled-Foal: Tier 1, #8 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 Dimpled-FoalDimpled-Foal: Tier 1, #8 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 · 0
↑ $390Yes capibcapib: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 capibcapib: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 · 0
↓ $345No Dimpled-FoalDimpled-Foal: Tier 1, #8 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 Dimpled-FoalDimpled-Foal: Tier 1, #8 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T10 · 1
↓ $285No ng6000ng6000: Tier 2, #11 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 ng6000ng6000: Tier 2, #11 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T20 · 1

10 options: no ranked trader holds them

Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 15 options

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during October 2026, any 1-minute candle for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. Prices occurring during pre-market or after-hours trading will not qualify. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.TSLA%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.TSLA%2FUSD?t=1773432000) If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.Show rulesHide rules
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during October 2026, any 1-minute candle for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. Prices occurring during pre-market or after-hours trading will not qualify. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.TSLA%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.TSLA%2FUSD?t=1773432000) If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.
How markets resolve
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↑ $375 · Buy YesOption 8 of 15

Polymarket price · live

Yes87¢
No24¢

Last: The price of the most recent trade on Polymarket. When the spread is wider than 10¢, this is the chance the page shows. 85¢ · Spread: The gap between the best price to buy and the best price to sell. A wide spread means few orders near the price. 11¢

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Before you decide · ↑ $375

  • News8 today · latest 2h
  • AI analystsreviewing
  • Tiers 1–2none of the top 50
Paper trading · play money

Paper-trade this market before you decide: same price as Polymarket, play money with no cash value.