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How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN17 levels openResearch 1d ago
Below 4.9% 83%Below 4.8% 65%Below 4.7% 35%Below 4.6% 21%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.
17 levels open · in level order
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
17 open levels, in level order.
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Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
Below 3.6%No pakopako: Tier 1, #6 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 02 pakopako: Tier 1, #6 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1cigarettescigarettes: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 0 · 2
Below 4.7%No Started-with-20-USDStarted-with-20-USD: Tier 2, #33 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 Started-with-20-USDStarted-with-20-USD: Tier 2, #33 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T20 · 1
Below 4.6%No Started-with-20-USDStarted-with-20-USD: Tier 2, #33 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 Started-with-20-USDStarted-with-20-USD: Tier 2, #33 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T20 · 1
Below 4.5%Yes Started-with-20-USDStarted-with-20-USD: Tier 2, #33 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 Started-with-20-USDStarted-with-20-USD: Tier 2, #33 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 · 0
Below 4.3%No cigarettescigarettes: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 cigarettescigarettes: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T20 · 1
Below 3.5%No pakopako: Tier 1, #6 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 pakopako: Tier 1, #6 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T10 · 1
Below 3.0%No pakopako: Tier 1, #6 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 pakopako: Tier 1, #6 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T10 · 1
10 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
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- In plain English
- Below 4.6% resolves Yes if the Department of the Treasury's 'Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates', column '10 Yr', reports a yield strictly lower than the option's threshold for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026; otherwise No. Resolution occurs as soon as a qualifying reading appears or all period data becomes available; if data remains incomplete within 14 calendar days (ET) after the period ends, available data determines resolution.
- Watch out
- Only the Treasury's 'Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates' column '10 Yr' counts. A reading equal to Below 4.6%'s threshold does not satisfy the strict 'lower than' condition.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
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