MarketsAI
Highest Kimi score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN5 levels openResearch 2h ago
45%+ 74%50%+ 44%55%+ 12%60%+ 9%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.
5 levels open · in level order
OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
5 open levels, in level order. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
45%+74%55%−19
50%+44%32%−12
55%+12%9%−3
60%+9%4%−5
65%+5%4%−1
AI analysts' average · 55%+
9%
3 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst
Biggest gap
45%+: AI 55% vs market 74%, 19 pts below
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
For information purposes only. Not investment advice.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionHoldingTiers 1–2
45%+30 · 3
50%+20 · 2
55%+21 · 1
60%+10 · 1
65%+10 · 1
Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Moonshot Kimi model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
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Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.
