MarketsAI
Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN6 levels openResearch 6h ago
42%+ 65%45%+ 59%50%+ 36%55%+ 19%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.
6 levels open · in level order
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
6 open levels, in level order.
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
42%+65%55%−10
50%+36%37%+1
45%+59%43%−16
55%+19%17%−2
60%+14%12%−2
65%+5%5%0
AI analysts' average · 42%+
55%
10 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 1 level, 0 price closer, on 224 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
50%+No iutwpfaliutwpfal: Tier 2, #22 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 02 iutwpfaliutwpfal: Tier 2, #22 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2dedidancdedidanc: Tier 2, #29 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 0 · 2
45%+No iutwpfaliutwpfal: Tier 2, #22 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 02 iutwpfaliutwpfal: Tier 2, #22 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2StonktraderStonktrader: Tier 2, #31 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 0 · 2
55%+No iutwpfaliutwpfal: Tier 2, #22 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 02 iutwpfaliutwpfal: Tier 2, #22 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2dedidancdedidanc: Tier 2, #29 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 0 · 2
60%+No iutwpfaliutwpfal: Tier 2, #22 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 iutwpfaliutwpfal: Tier 2, #22 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T20 · 1
2 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if any SpaceXAI Grok model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
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