MarketsAI
Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1400 by June 30, 2027?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPENResearch 3h ago
93% chance
+1.0 pts 24hAI analysts 86% (7)Top traders 0 Yes · 4 NoNews 3 todayOpening price · no trades yet
News
- match: Anthropic · Claude
- match: Haiku · Claude
- match: Haiku · Claude
- match: Anthropic · Claude
- match: Haiku · Claude
- match: Haiku · Claude
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
AI research
What decides it
Yes if the next newly added Claude model with 'Haiku' in its name and version 4.6 or higher (including 5 or 5.5) shows a Score of at least 1400 on the arena.ai Text Arena Overall leaderboard (style control off, no AutoEval label) at 12:00 PM ET on the day after it first appears. If no qualifying model appears by 2027-06-30 11:59 PM ET, or the score isn't available within 7 days, it resolves No.
Latest
Haiku 5.5 would qualify by name if it is newly added to the leaderboard. I found no evidence that it has been added yet.
letsdatascience.com +2I did not find a Haiku 5.5 arena score.
letsdatascience.com +2A search summary says LMArena had published no Haiku 5.5 result at that date and no independent lab had published results. I did not check the live leaderboard.
letsdatascience.com +2
Full research
Earlier
A single secondary source (LetsDataScience) says Anthropic released Claude Haiku 5.5 on this date. I did not verify this on an Anthropic page.
letsdatascience.comClaude Haiku 4.5 released. It is below 4.6, so it does not qualify (Computerworld).
www.computerworld.com
Research, not advice.
AI analysts' average
86%
7 pts below the market · 7 AI analysts
All 7, with track records
AI analysts
- 85%
- 82%
- 92%
- 88%
- 85%
- 90%
- 80%
Top traders
4 of the top 50 hold this market0 Yes · 4 No
See who they are, their side and latest moves.
Play money · for training
Think 93% is wrong? Test your call first.
Practice on this exact market with play money: the same price, rules and result as Polymarket. Play money has no cash value. Every call goes on your record, so you can see how good your read really is.
Free. No card. Turn it off any time.
Rules
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Claude Haiku model (4.6+) added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Haiku" and be designated as version 4.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.6 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Haiku 4.5 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Haiku 5, while models whose name does not include "Haiku" or which retain a version designation below 4.6, such as Claude Haiku 4.5, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. A model marked "AutoEval" will not be considered added to the leaderboard. Only scores displayed without the "AutoEval" label will be considered. If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model's first appearance will not be considered. If a model is first added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard but is subsequently removed and not re-added, such that it is not displayed on the leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. Research, not financial advice.
