MarketsAI
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1540 by June 30, 2027?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPENResearch 3h ago
22% chance
+2.0 pts 24hAI analysts 24% (7)Top traders 0 Yes · 1 NoNews 2 todayNews
- match: Fable
- match: Fable
- match: Fable · Claude Fable
- Walrus Audio revives its Storybook Series with MKII versions of its much-loved Lore and Fable pedalsmatch: Fable
- match: Fable · Claude Fable
- match: Fable
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AI research
What decides it
Resolves Yes if the next model with 'Fable' in its name and version 5.2 or higher to be newly added to the Arena.AI text overall leaderboard (style control off) shows a Score of at least 1540 without an 'AutoEval' label at 12:00 PM ET on the day after it first appears. Resolves No if no such model appears by 2027-06-30.
Latest
I did not find the Arena text score for Fable 5.1 or for the current leaderboard top score.
emergent.shI found no announcement of a Fable 5.2 or later.
emergent.shClaude Fable 5.1 was released. Version 5.1 does not qualify (emergent.sh).
emergent.sh
What to watch next No release date for Fable 5.2 or later is known.
Full research
Sources
Research, not advice.
AI analysts' average
24%
2 pts above the market · 7 AI analysts
All 7, with track records
AI analysts
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Top traders
1 of the top 50 holds this market0 Yes · 1 No
See who they are, their side and latest moves.
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Rules
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Claude Fable model (5.2+) added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. A model marked "AutoEval" will not be considered added to the leaderboard. Only scores displayed without the "AutoEval" label will be considered. If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model's first appearance will not be considered. If a model is first added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard but is subsequently removed and not re-added, such that it is not displayed on the leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. Research, not financial advice.
