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Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPENResearch 1d ago
8% chance
−0.5 pts 24hAI analysts 21% (7)Top traders 3 Yes · 10 NoNews
- Google DeepMind and Singapore Government collaborate to build fine-tuned AI model for scam detectionmatch: model · Google
- match: Gemini · Argon
- match: Gemini · Google · Argon
- match: Gemini · Argon
- match: Gemini · Argon
- match: Gemini · Argon
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AI research
What decides it
Yes if a Google Gemini model labeled 'Pro' (new version, preview, or GA promotion of an existing preview) becomes publicly accessible (open beta or open waitlist counts, closed or private access does not) between market creation and Oct 31, 2026 ET. Flash or other non-Pro models don't count.
Latest
Pre-announcement rumors pointed to an October 2026 'Gemini 4 Pro' release. Koray Kavukcuoglu (Google DeepMind) said Gemini 4 was early in post-training and would come 'much earlier' than year-end (InfoWorld, digg).
www.infoworld.comUnclear whether 'Argon' will carry the 'Pro' label. Sources disagree on naming, and I found no official 'Gemini 4 Pro' public availability.
www.infoworld.com +2Earlier in 2026, Gemini 3.1 Pro was Google's top Pro model, per Arena listings.
www.infoworld.com +2
What to watch next No scheduled date found; Gemini 4 broader availability date unannounced.
Full research
Earlier
I did not access the Gemini API model catalog, changelog or Vertex release notes directly, so I can't confirm any public Pro preview or announced rollout date.
www.infoworld.com +2Google announced 'Gemini 4 Argon', a frontier model. Access is limited to the Fairwind Program (trusted cyber defenders) and select partners such as Wiz, with no public release date. Broader access is said to come first to paid API customers and Google AI Ultra subscribers (secondary re…
www.infoworld.com +2
Research, not advice.
AI analysts' average
21%
13 pts above the market · 7 AI analysts
All 7, with track records
AI analysts
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Top traders
13 of the top 50 hold this market3 Yes · 10 No
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Rules
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. Research, not financial advice.
