MarketsAI
Next Muse Spark Model (1.4+) released on...?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN7 optionsResearch 1h ago
No release by October 31 93%October 30 1%October 28 <1%October 25 <1%
7 options · in level order
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
7 open levels, in level order. +4 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
October 24<1%——
October 25<1%——
October 26<1%——
October 28<1%——
October 301%——
October 31<1%——
+1 more option
AI analysts' average · October 26
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Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionHoldingTiers 1–2
No release by October 3152 · 3
October 2821 · 1
October 2510 · 1
2 options: no ranked trader holds them
Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
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