How do I trade on "Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in October 2026?"?

Trade this market based on your view. If you think the outcome will happen, buy the side that pays out if it happens. If you think it won't, buy the side that pays out if it doesn't. Prices reflect the market's estimated probability.

When does this market resolve?

Markets resolve automatically based on real-world data. Check the resolution date shown on the market page.

# of ChatGPT Outage Days in October 2026?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN6 optionsCloses Nov 2, 2026Research 7h ago

Polymarket price · top 4 of 6 options

5+ 99%4 <1%2 <1%3 <1%

6 options · in level order

OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

<1———none

1———0 · 1

2<1%+0.2 pts16%none

3<1%—9%0 · 1

4<1%−30.3 pts1%0 · 1

5+99%+30.2 pts52%none

6 open levels, in level order. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 7h ago

OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

<1———

1———

2<1%16%+16

3<1%9%+9

4<1%1%0

5+99%52%−47

AI analysts' average · 2

16%

16 pts above the market · 2 AI analysts

Biggest gap

5+: AI 52% vs market 99%, 47 pts below

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

News

2d
OpenAI Outage Today: Is OpenAI Down Today in US? Users Report ChatGPT ‘Not Responding’, Codex Errors, Loading Issues, Missing Chats, PDF & AI Image Generation Failures | OpenAI Downdetector Status
The Sunday Guardian
2d
ChatGPT Outage Tops 74,000 Reports as Codex Fails [2026]
shattered.io
5d
ChatGPT logins broke on every mobile app, and OpenAI's incident ran two hours and 26 minutes
MIXED Reality News
5d
OpenAI’s ChatGPT Back in Service After Downtime
Bol News

Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.

Polymarket's traders in this topic by 3-month profit · updated 7h ago

OptionHoldingTiers 1–2

110 · 1

310 · 1

410 · 1

3 options: no ranked trader holds them

Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 6 options

This market will resolve to the number of calendar days during the specified month (ET) on which OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage'. ChatGPT will be considered to have experienced a qualifying incident on a given day if the OpenAI Status Page for ChatGPT (status.openai.com) displays that day’s status box as a shade of red indicating Partial/Full Outage once all qualifying day’s status boxes are finalized. (green indicates "No incidents", yellow indicates "Degraded performance"). Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' 'Codex,' 'FedRamp,' or 'Ads Platform,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box is added on the Status Page. This market will remain open until all qualifying day’s status boxes are finalized. Revisions that change an incident’s impact classification to or from 'Partial/Full Outage' will be considered if the revision is published within this market’s timeframe. This market will resolve once all relevant days are finalized, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing. In case of an ongoing incident the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If the incident in question is not resolved or all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.Show rulesHide rules

Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to the number of calendar days during the specified month (ET) on which OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage'. ChatGPT will be considered to have experienced a qualifying incident on a given day if the OpenAI Status Page for ChatGPT (status.openai.com) displays that day’s status box as a shade of red indicating Partial/Full Outage once all qualifying day’s status boxes are finalized. (green indicates "No incidents", yellow indicates "Degraded performance"). Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' 'Codex,' 'FedRamp,' or 'Ads Platform,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box is added on the Status Page. This market will remain open until all qualifying day’s status boxes are finalized. Revisions that change an incident’s impact classification to or from 'Partial/Full Outage' will be considered if the revision is published within this market’s timeframe. This market will resolve once all relevant days are finalized, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing. In case of an ongoing incident the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If the incident in question is not resolved or all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.

How markets resolve

Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

# of ChatGPT Outage Days in October 2026?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN6 optionsCloses Nov 2, 2026Research 7h ago

Polymarket price · top 4 of 6 options

5+ 99%4 <1%2 <1%3 <1%

6 options · in level order

OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

<1———none

1———0 · 1

2<1%+0.2 pts16%none

3<1%—9%0 · 1

4<1%−30.3 pts1%0 · 1

5+99%+30.2 pts52%none

6 open levels, in level order. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 7h ago

OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

<1———

1———

2<1%16%+16

3<1%9%+9

4<1%1%0

5+99%52%−47

AI analysts' average · 2

16%

16 pts above the market · 2 AI analysts

Biggest gap

5+: AI 52% vs market 99%, 47 pts below

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

News

2d
OpenAI Outage Today: Is OpenAI Down Today in US? Users Report ChatGPT ‘Not Responding’, Codex Errors, Loading Issues, Missing Chats, PDF & AI Image Generation Failures | OpenAI Downdetector Status
The Sunday Guardian
2d
ChatGPT Outage Tops 74,000 Reports as Codex Fails [2026]
shattered.io
5d
ChatGPT logins broke on every mobile app, and OpenAI's incident ran two hours and 26 minutes
MIXED Reality News
5d
OpenAI’s ChatGPT Back in Service After Downtime
Bol News

Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.

Polymarket's traders in this topic by 3-month profit · updated 7h ago

OptionHoldingTiers 1–2

110 · 1

310 · 1

410 · 1

3 options: no ranked trader holds them

Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 6 options

Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to the number of calendar days during the specified month (ET) on which OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage'. ChatGPT will be considered to have experienced a qualifying incident on a given day if the OpenAI Status Page for ChatGPT (status.openai.com) displays that day’s status box as a shade of red indicating Partial/Full Outage once all qualifying day’s status boxes are finalized. (green indicates "No incidents", yellow indicates "Degraded performance"). Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' 'Codex,' 'FedRamp,' or 'Ads Platform,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box is added on the Status Page. This market will remain open until all qualifying day’s status boxes are finalized. Revisions that change an incident’s impact classification to or from 'Partial/Full Outage' will be considered if the revision is published within this market’s timeframe. This market will resolve once all relevant days are finalized, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing. In case of an ongoing incident the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If the incident in question is not resolved or all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.

How markets resolve

Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

# of ChatGPT Outage Days in October 2026?

1AI analysts

2News

3Smart moneySmart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 6 options

Related Markets

# of ChatGPT Outage Days in October 2026?

1AI analysts

2News

3Smart moneySmart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 6 options

Related Markets

AI analysts

News

AI analysts

News