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Which movie has 2nd biggest opening weekend in 2026?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN5 optionsCloses Feb 1, 2027

Polymarket price · top 2 of 5 options

Spider-Man: Brand New Day 53%Avengers: Doomsday 49%

5 options · by chance

OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
Spider-Man: Brand New Day53%−3.5 pts56%4 · 1
Avengers: Doomsday49%+6.0 pts44%0 · 4
Toy Story 5———none
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping———none
Dune: Messiah———none

5 options trading, by chance. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

1AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Spider-Man: Brand New Day53%56%+3
Avengers: Doomsday49%44%−5
Toy Story 5———
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping———
Dune: Messiah———

AI analysts' average · Toy Story 5

—

Biggest gap

Avengers: Doomsday: AI 44% vs market 49%, 5 pts below

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

2News

  • 4h
    Disney/Pixar Toy Story: Retro Roundup! Review
    Cubed3
  • 7h
    Review: ‘Toy Story 5’ showcases how childhood has fundamentally changed
    The Daily Tar Heel
  • 20h
    VINTAGE TOY STORY THE MOVIE STORYBOOK‎ 1996
    khorasantimes.com
  • 1d
    Toy Story 5, Backrooms and The Breadwinner Vie to Become the Second Biggest Film This Year...
    The Entertainment Strategy Guy | Substack
  • 2d
    Toy Story 3: Complete Edition Review (PS5) – Quiet, Musical Hog!
    Finger Guns
  • 2d
    Toy Story: Retro Round-Up Review (PS5) – Reach For The Sky
    Finger Guns
  • 2d
    Toy Story 3 Complete Edition Review – Lotso Fun
    GamingBolt
  • 3d
    'Toy Story 5' Director Explains Two-Week Production Shutdown
    Cartoon Brew
  • 3d
    Taylor Swift Takes Over 1 of Hollywood’s Biggest Nights With Toy Story 5 Song
    Yahoo
  • 4d
    Taylor Swift Performs Toy Story 5 Song ‘I Knew It, I Knew You’ at 2026 Academy Museum Gala
    People.com
  • 6d
    Review: ‘Toy Story 5’ balances nostalgia with a story for today’s generation
    HS Insider
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.

3Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.

Polymarket's traders in this topic by 3-month profit · updated 2h ago
OptionHoldingTiers 1–2
Spider-Man: Brand New Day54 · 1
Avengers: Doomsday40 · 4

3 options: no ranked trader holds them

Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 5 options

This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the second-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the second-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend. If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 2nd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.Show rulesHide rules
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the second-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the second-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend. If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 2nd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.
How markets resolve
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Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

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Toy Story 5 · Buy YesOption 3 of 5

Polymarket price · live

Yes0¢
No—
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Before you decide · Toy Story 5

  • News3 today · latest 4h
  • AI analystsreviewing
  • Tiers 1–2none of the top 50
Paper trading · play money

Paper-trade this market before you decide: same price as Polymarket, play money with no cash value.