MarketsAI
#2 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of October 26?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN11 optionsResearch 1d ago
OpenAI 74%Google 29%Z.ai <1%MiniMax <1%
11 options · by chance
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
11 options trading, by chance. +1 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
OpenAI74%49%−25
Google29%48%+19
Z.ai<1%1%0
MiniMax<1%1%0
Tencent<1%1%+1
Xiaomi<1%1%+1
+5 more options
AI analysts' average · OpenAI
49%
25 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 1 level, 0 price closer, on 313 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
MiniMaxNo iutwpfaliutwpfal: Tier 2, #17 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 iutwpfaliutwpfal: Tier 2, #17 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T20 · 1
TencentYes iutwpfaliutwpfal: Tier 2, #17 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 iutwpfaliutwpfal: Tier 2, #17 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 · 0
NvidiaYes iutwpfaliutwpfal: Tier 2, #17 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 iutwpfaliutwpfal: Tier 2, #17 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 · 0
AnthropicNo KimchiCapitalKimchiCapital: Tier 2, #18 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 KimchiCapitalKimchiCapital: Tier 2, #18 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T20 · 1
MetaYes iutwpfaliutwpfal: Tier 2, #17 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 iutwpfaliutwpfal: Tier 2, #17 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 · 0
QwenYes iutwpfaliutwpfal: Tier 2, #17 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 iutwpfaliutwpfal: Tier 2, #17 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 · 0
xAIYes iutwpfaliutwpfal: Tier 2, #17 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 iutwpfaliutwpfal: Tier 2, #17 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 · 0
4 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- In plain English
- OpenAI resolves Yes if it holds the second-highest percentage in OpenRouter's Market Share chart (Percentage setting) for the week of October 26 to November 1, 2026, skipping 'stealth' and 'others'. Ties are broken by the larger absolute token count, then alphabetically. Figures are read once the week of November 2 is first displayed, or at 11:59 PM ET on November 6 if it is not displayed by then. If no data is available at that point, the market resolves to Other.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to the AI lab with the second highest market share on OpenRouter for the week of October 26 to November 1, 2026. A lab's market share is the percentage displayed for that lab in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage, for the week of October 26 to November 1, 2026. The "stealth" and "others" groupings are not labs; if either occupies the relevant rank, it will be skipped and the next ranked lab will be used. This market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of October 26 to November 1, 2026 once the figures for the week of November 2, 2026 are first displayed. If the figures for the week of November 2, 2026 have not been displayed by 11:59 PM ET on November 6, 2026, this market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of October 26 to November 1, 2026 at that time. If no data is available for the week of October 26 to November 1, 2026 at that time, this market will resolve to "Other". The AI labs will be primarily ranked by the percentage displayed in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage. If two or more labs are tied on market share in percentage terms, the lab with the larger token count displayed in the Absolute view of the chart will be ranked higher. If a tie still remains, the lab whose listed name comes first alphabetically will be ranked higher. This market will resolve to the AI lab ranked 2nd after applying this ranking. The resolution source for this market is https://openrouter.ai/rankings.
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