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AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?
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OPEN1 level openResearch 7h ago
December 31, 2026 24%
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OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
December 31, 202624%17%−7
AI analysts' average · December 31, 2026
17%
7 pts below the market · 4 AI analysts
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News
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OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
December 31, 2026Yes dromedaryydromedaryy: Tier 1, #6 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No SnapElectionAvoiderSnapElectionAvoider: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 5 dromedaryydromedaryy: Tier 1, #6 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1molodoyymolodoyy: Tier 2, #15 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 3 SnapElectionAvoiderSnapElectionAvoider: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1enrico-vasaioenrico-vasaio: Tier 2, #25 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 5 · 3
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Rules
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- In plain English
- Resolves Yes if an eligible AI lab (or its official representative) announces, by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, that it has solved the Riemann Hypothesis, P versus NP, Yang-Mills existence and mass gap, the Hodge Conjecture, or the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture. Otherwise No. The announcement must say the problem is solved and credit the lab or its models, alone or jointly with outsiders. Navier-Stokes, partial results, and announcements that credit only outside researchers do not count. Clay Institute confirmation is not required.
- Watch out
- Navier-Stokes announcements, such as OpenAI's of September 2026, do not qualify. Only Riemann, P vs NP, Yang-Mills, Hodge or BSD count, and the announcement must credit the lab itself, not only outside researchers.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if an eligible AI lab, or an official representative of an eligible AI lab, announces that the lab has solved any of the qualifying Millennium Prize Problems by 11:59 PM ET of the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The qualifying problems are the Riemann Hypothesis, P versus NP, the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem, the Hodge Conjecture, and the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture (https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/). Announcements concerning the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem will not qualify. A qualifying announcement must express that the problem has been solved; announcements of partial results or progress toward a solution will not qualify. The announcement must present the solution as the work of the lab, its researchers, or its models, alone or jointly with outside researchers. An announcement that only credits or congratulates outside researchers, including researchers who used the lab's models, compute, or research credits, will not qualify. No further confirmation from Clay Math Institute or any other organization is required. The eligible AI labs are Anthropic, Google, SpaceXAI, Alibaba, OpenAI, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, Moonshot, Meta, Nvidia, DeepSeek, MiniMax, Meituan, Amazon, ByteDance, Mistral, Tencent, StepFun, Microsoft, Harmonic, Axiom Math, Math Inc, Safe Superintelligence, Thinking Machines Lab, Reflection AI, Periodic Labs, Apple, IBM, Huawei, Samsung, Oracle, Salesforce, Cohere, AI21 Labs, Reka, Sakana AI, Poolside, Magic, Perplexity, Anysphere, Kuaishou, SenseTime, iFlytek, Baichuan, and 01.AI, together with their subsidiaries and research divisions, and any other company with a model listed on the MMLU-pro leaderboard (https://huggingface.co/spaces/TIGER-Lab/MMLU-Pro) at the time of the announcement. Announcements by any other company, organization, or individual will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the eligible AI labs and/or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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