How do I trade on "Will any other model be the best AI model on November 2, 2026?"?

Trade this market based on your view. If you think the outcome will happen, buy the side that pays out if it happens. If you think it won't, buy the side that pays out if it doesn't. Prices reflect the market's estimated probability.

When does this market resolve?

Markets resolve automatically based on real-world data. Check the resolution date shown on the market page.

Best AI model on November 2?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN2 optionsCloses Nov 4, 2026Research 3d ago

Polymarket chance · top 2 of 2 options

Other 7%claude-fable-5.1-max <1%

2 options · by chance

Option24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

Other7%−11.5 pts15%none

claude-fable-5.1-max<1%—2%none

2 options trading, by chance. +2 more on Polymarket

AI analysts

1 AI analyst · each gives every option a chance · updated 3d ago

OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

Other7%15%+8

claude-fable-5.1-max<1%2%+1

AI analysts' average · Other

15%

8 pts above the market · 1 AI analyst

Track record

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

News

No headlines about this market in the last 7 days.

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Polymarket's traders in this topic by 3-month profit · updated 1h ago

OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No

2 options: no ranked trader holds them

Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 2 options

Show rulesHide rules

In plain English: Other resolves Yes if it has the highest rank on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall, style control off, Models filter) when checked on November 2, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Models marked 'AutoEval' are excluded. Ties are broken by unrounded Arena score, then alphabetically. Models not listed in the market fall under 'Other'.
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5.5-high” would be ranked ahead of “gemini-4-argon-high”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

How markets resolve