MarketsPolitics
Elon Musk # tweets October 23 - October 30, 2026?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN17 options11 closedResearch 7d ago
320-339 27%340-359 22%300-319 16%360-379 12%
17 options
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
11 closed options
17 options trading. +13 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
220-239<1%7%+7
240-259<1%9%+9
260-279<1%11%+10
280-2997%12%+5
300-31916%13%−3
320-33927%13%−14
+11 more options
AI analysts' average · 320-339
13%
14 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 1 level, 0 price closer, on 359 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
260-279Yes mcsgmcsg: Tier 2, #14 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 No blisniblisni: Tier 2, #17 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T24 mcsgmcsg: Tier 2, #14 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2sange111sange111: Tier 2, #20 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 1 blisniblisni: Tier 2, #17 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T24 · 1
280-299Yes mcsgmcsg: Tier 2, #14 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 No blisniblisni: Tier 2, #17 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T24 mcsgmcsg: Tier 2, #14 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2sange111sange111: Tier 2, #20 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 1 blisniblisni: Tier 2, #17 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T24 · 1
300-319Yes sange111sange111: Tier 2, #20 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 No blisniblisni: Tier 2, #17 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T23 sange111sange111: Tier 2, #20 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2.SUNDAY..SUNDAY.: Tier 2, #26 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 1 blisniblisni: Tier 2, #17 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T23 · 1
240-259Yes mcsgmcsg: Tier 2, #14 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 No blisniblisni: Tier 2, #17 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T22 mcsgmcsg: Tier 2, #14 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2filaretoufilaretou: Tier 2, #31 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 1 blisniblisni: Tier 2, #17 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T22 · 1
360-379Yes mcsgmcsg: Tier 2, #14 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 No ElonurmomElonurmom: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T12 mcsgmcsg: Tier 2, #14 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2.SUNDAY..SUNDAY.: Tier 2, #26 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 1 ElonurmomElonurmom: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T12 · 1
220-239Yes mcsgmcsg: Tier 2, #14 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 2 mcsgmcsg: Tier 2, #14 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2filaretoufilaretou: Tier 2, #31 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 02 · 0
320-339Yes .SUNDAY..SUNDAY.: Tier 2, #26 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 No 0xbFfcF3C634B368F277adC26dF75E4560d721560xbFfcF3C634B368F277adC26dF75E4560d72156: Tier 2, #24 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 .SUNDAY..SUNDAY.: Tier 2, #26 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 0xbFfcF3C634B368F277adC26dF75E4560d721560xbFfcF3C634B368F277adC26dF75E4560d72156: Tier 2, #24 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 · 1
340-359Yes .SUNDAY..SUNDAY.: Tier 2, #26 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 No ElonurmomElonurmom: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 .SUNDAY..SUNDAY.: Tier 2, #26 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 ElonurmomElonurmom: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 · 1
400-419Yes sebyastienssebyastiens: Tier 1, #10 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 2 sebyastienssebyastiens: Tier 1, #10 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1mcsgmcsg: Tier 2, #14 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 02 · 0
420-439Yes sebyastienssebyastiens: Tier 1, #10 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 2 sebyastienssebyastiens: Tier 1, #10 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1mcsgmcsg: Tier 2, #14 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 02 · 0
440-459Yes sebyastienssebyastiens: Tier 1, #10 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 2 sebyastienssebyastiens: Tier 1, #10 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1mcsgmcsg: Tier 2, #14 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 02 · 0
460-479Yes sebyastienssebyastiens: Tier 1, #10 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 2 sebyastienssebyastiens: Tier 1, #10 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1mcsgmcsg: Tier 2, #14 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 02 · 0
380-399Yes mcsgmcsg: Tier 2, #14 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 mcsgmcsg: Tier 2, #14 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 · 0
480-499Yes mcsgmcsg: Tier 2, #14 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 mcsgmcsg: Tier 2, #14 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 · 0
520-539Yes mcsgmcsg: Tier 2, #14 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 mcsgmcsg: Tier 2, #14 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 · 0
580+Yes mcsgmcsg: Tier 2, #14 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 mcsgmcsg: Tier 2, #14 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 · 0
1 option: no ranked trader holds it
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- In plain English
- Yes if the xtracker.The source market 'Post Counter' for @elonmusk (main-feed posts, quote posts and reposts; replies excluded) is 320-339 between Oct 23 12:00 PM ET and Oct 30 12:00 PM ET, 2026. Otherwise No.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 23 12:00 PM ET to October 30, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
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