MarketsPolitics
Fall Elections Combo: Brazil, Israel, US Senate
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN6 options6 closedResearch 4h ago
Lula, Netanyahu, Dems 38%Lula, Eizenkot, Dems 22%Lula, Eizenkot, Reps 14%Lula, Netanyahu, Reps 13%
6 options · by chance
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
6 closed options
6 options trading, by chance. +6 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Lula, Netanyahu, Dems38%29%−9
Lula, Eizenkot, Dems22%16%−6
Lula, Eizenkot, Reps14%12%−2
Lula, Netanyahu, Reps13%15%+2
Lula, Bennett, Dems3%4%+1
Lula, Bennett, Reps<1%2%+2
AI analysts' average · Lula, Netanyahu, Dems
29%
9 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 1 level, 0 price closer, on 360 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
Lula, Eizenkot, DemsYes GaditimaGaditima: Tier 2, #21 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 No paddaapaddaa: Tier 2, #34 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 2 GaditimaGaditima: Tier 2, #21 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2101456101456: Tier 2, #50 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 2 paddaapaddaa: Tier 2, #34 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2JokerTheClownJokerTheClown: Tier 2, #36 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 2 · 2
Lula, Netanyahu, DemsYes paddaapaddaa: Tier 2, #34 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 No anoin123anoin123: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 1 paddaapaddaa: Tier 2, #34 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T22 anoin123anoin123: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1GaditimaGaditima: Tier 2, #21 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 1 · 2
Lula, Eizenkot, RepsYes paddaapaddaa: Tier 2, #34 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 paddaapaddaa: Tier 2, #34 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 · 0
3 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- In plain English
- Lula, Netanyahu, Dems resolves Yes only if all three constituent outcomes match it. These are the winner of the Brazil presidential election (runoff Oct 25, 2026), the first Israeli PM sworn in after the Oct 27, 2026 election, and the party that wins US Senate control in the Nov 3, 2026 midterms. Resolution follows the three linked the source market markets. If any constituent resolves 'Other', this resolves 'Other'.
- Watch out
- Israel's leg resolves on the first PM sworn in after the election, not on who leads the vote or is asked to form a government. Any 'Other' constituent outcome makes the whole market resolve 'Other'.
- Resolution criteria
- The runoff round of the Brazilian presidential election is scheduled to take place on October 25, 2026. Legislative elections in Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. The United States midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to the single listed outcome that matches all three of the following: the winner of the Brazilian presidential election, the first Prime Minister of Israel to be sworn in as a result of the election, and the party that wins control of the United States Senate in the midterm elections. For full rules for the Brazilian presidential election, click here: https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election For full rules for the Israeli Prime Minister, click here: https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel-after-the-next-election For full rules for the United States Senate control, click here: https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026 Additional options may be added to this market between market creation and resolution. In the event that any constituent market resolves to "Other," this market will resolve to "Other." This market will resolve according to the sources named in the three markets linked above.
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