Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN5 levels openResearch 4d ago
June 30, 2027 31%March 31, 2027 11%December 31, 2026 5%November 30, 2026 2%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.
5 levels open · in level order
5 open levels, in level order. +1 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
AI analysts' average · June 30, 2027
16 pts below the market · 2 AI analysts
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 2 level, 0 price closer, on 313–359 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- In plain English
- Resolves Yes if Friedrich Merz ceases to be Chancellor of Germany for any period by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of his resignation or removal before that date resolves Yes immediately, whenever it takes effect. Otherwise No. The resolution source is the German government, or a consensus of credible reporting.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
