How do I trade on "Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?"?

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Highest OpenAI score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN1 level openCloses Jan 2, 2027Research 1d ago

Polymarket chance · the 1 levels nearest 50%

65%+ 7%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.

1 level open · in level order

Option24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

65%+7%+2.1 pts5%1 · 1

1 open level, in level order. +3 more on Polymarket

AI analysts

1 AI analyst · each gives every option a chance · updated 1d ago

OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

65%+7%5%−2

AI analysts' average · 65%+

2 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst

Track record

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Polymarket's AI traders by 3-month profit · updated 28m ago

OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No

65%+Yes HerrieDavis T2 No molodoyy T21 HerrieDavis T21 molodoyy T21 · 1

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Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 1 options

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In plain English: Resolves Yes if any OpenAI model achieves at least 65% 'HLE Accuracy' on Humanity's Last Exam, per the official leaderboard at agi.safe.ai (or a clear equivalent metric), by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise No. If the source is unavailable, other official HLE results may be used; with no official source, No.
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".

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