How do I trade on "Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?"?

Trade this market based on your view. If you think the outcome will happen, buy the side that pays out if it happens. If you think it won't, buy the side that pays out if it doesn't. Prices reflect the market's estimated probability.

When does this market resolve?

Markets resolve automatically based on real-world data. Check the resolution date shown on the market page.

How high will inflation get in 2026?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN3 levels openCloses Jan 1, 2027Research 4d ago

Polymarket chance · the 3 levels nearest 50%

Above 4.5% 16%Above 5% 8%Above 8% 4%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.

3 levels open

Option24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

Above 4.5%16%+1.5 pts13%—

Above 5%8%—6%—

Above 8%4%−1.6 pts1%—

3 options trading. +2 more on Polymarket

AI analysts

3 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 4d ago

OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

Above 4.5%16%13%−3

Above 5%8%6%−2

Above 8%4%1%−3

AI analysts' average · Above 4.5%

13%

3 pts below the market · 3 AI analysts

Track record

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

News

No headlines about this market in the last 7 days.

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Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 3 options

Resolves Yes if the BLS CPI-U 12-month change, as printed to one decimal in the monthly BLS CPI news release, is greater than Above 4.5% for the 12 months ending any month of 2026 (January to December). Otherwise it resolves No. The market may not resolve No until the December 2026 report is out. Later revisions don't count. If the December report isn't issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, it resolves on the figures already published.Show rulesHide rules

In plain English: Resolves Yes if the BLS CPI-U 12-month change, as printed to one decimal in the monthly BLS CPI news release, is greater than Above 4.5% for the 12 months ending any month of 2026 (January to December). Otherwise it resolves No. The market may not resolve No until the December 2026 report is out. Later revisions don't count. If the December report isn't issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, it resolves on the figures already published.
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

How markets resolve