MarketsPolitics
Israel Election: Likud # of seats?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
Event finished5 optionsResearch 7h ago
25-29 96%30-34 3%20-24 <1%35+ <1%
5 options
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
5 options trading.
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
<20<1%10%+10
20-24<1%46%+45
25-2996%22%−74
30-343%6%+3
35+<1%1%+1
AI analysts' average · 25-29
22%
74 pts below the market · 3 AI analysts
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 3 level, 0 price closer, on 313–545 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
30-34No anoin123anoin123: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 013 anoin123anoin123: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1mr.ozimr.ozi: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 0 · 13
20-24Yes anoin123anoin123: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No mr.ozimr.ozi: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T18 anoin123anoin123: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1lava-lavalava-lava: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 1 mr.ozimr.ozi: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T18 · 1
25-29Yes mr.ozimr.ozi: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No anoin123anoin123: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 6 mr.ozimr.ozi: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1lava-lavalava-lava: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 3 anoin123anoin123: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1WordleAddictWordleAddict: Tier 2, #19 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 6 · 3
<20Yes anoin123anoin123: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 8 anoin123anoin123: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1mr.ozimr.ozi: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 08 · 0
35+No WordleAddictWordleAddict: Tier 2, #19 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 WordleAddictWordleAddict: Tier 2, #19 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T20 · 1
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- In plain English
- 25-29 resolves Yes if the number of Knesset seats won by Likud in the October 27, 2026 election falls in this bracket. Seats won by a joint list or merged party that includes Likud count. If results are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to the lowest bracket (<20).
- Watch out
- If the Likud contests on a joint list, all seats won by that list count. Results not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET resolve to the lowest bracket, <20.
- Resolution criteria
- Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Likud party in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Likud party in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
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