How do I trade on "Kimi K4 released by March 31, 2027?"?

Trade this market based on your view. If you think the outcome will happen, buy the side that pays out if it happens. If you think it won't, buy the side that pays out if it doesn't. Prices reflect the market's estimated probability.

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Kimi K4 released by…?

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN2 levels openCloses Apr 2, 2027Research 6d ago

Polymarket chance · the 2 levels nearest 50%

March 31, 2027 16%December 31, 2026 7%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.

2 levels open · in level order

Option24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

December 31, 20267%−1.0 pts7%2 · 0

March 31, 202716%−10.4 pts22%2 · 0

2 open levels, in level order. +1 more on Polymarket

AI analysts

4 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 6d ago

OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

December 31, 20267%7%0

March 31, 202716%22%+6

AI analysts' average · March 31, 2027

22%

6 pts above the market · 1 AI analyst

Track record

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News

No headlines about this market in the last 7 days.

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Polymarket's AI release traders by 3-month profit · updated 7m ago

OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No

December 31, 2026Yes Contentious-Dinnerdate T1 2 Contentious-Dinnerdate T1molodoyy T2 02 · 0

March 31, 2027Yes Contentious-Dinnerdate T1 2 Contentious-Dinnerdate T1molodoyy T2 02 · 0

Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

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Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 2 options

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In plain English: Resolves Yes if Moonshot AI's Kimi K4 (any model in the K4 family, or a recognized new flagship succeeding K3) is launched and publicly accessible, including open beta or an open waitlist, by 2027-03-31 11:59 PM ET. K3.5 or similar incremental versions do not count, and closed or private access does not count.
Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”. Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

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