MarketsAI
Micron Q1 adjusted gross margin?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN6 optionsResearch 2d ago
85% to 87.5% 64%87.5% to 90% 27%82.5% to 85% 13%<82.5% 4%
6 options · in level order
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
6 open levels, in level order.
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
<82.5%4%3%−1
82.5% to 85%13%8%−5
85% to 87.5%64%62%−2
87.5% to 90%27%13%−14
90% to 92.5%3%3%0
92.5%+2%2%0
AI analysts' average · 85% to 87.5%
62%
2 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 1 level, 0 price closer, on 312 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
85% to 87.5%Yes StonktraderStonktrader: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 2 StonktraderStonktrader: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1SnapElectionAvoiderSnapElectionAvoider: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 02 · 0
82.5% to 85%No SnapElectionAvoiderSnapElectionAvoider: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 SnapElectionAvoiderSnapElectionAvoider: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T10 · 1
4 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- In plain English
- 85% to 87.5% resolves Yes if Micron's non-GAAP adjusted gross margin (as a % of revenue) for fiscal Q1 2027, as stated in its official earnings materials, falls in 85% to 87.5%'s bracket. A value exactly on a boundary goes to the higher bracket. A reported range uses its midpoint. If the metric is missing, or no earnings are released by January 31, 2027 11:59 PM ET, the lowest bracket (<82.5%) resolves Yes. Later revisions are ignored.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve according to Micron's announced adjusted gross margin (non-GAAP, as a percentage of revenue) for the first fiscal quarter of 2027, as reported in its official company earnings materials. The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is Micron's official company earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.
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