MarketsAI
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN5 levels open6 closedResearch 2h ago
December 31 95%October 31 8%October 30 5%October 29 3%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%. Levels are in price order, as on Polymarket.
5 levels open · in level order
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
6 closed levels
5 open levels, in level order. +6 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
October 318%56%+48
October 281%28%+27
October 293%3%0
October 305%4%−1
December 3195%96%+1
AI analysts' average · October 31
56%
48 pts above the market · 4 AI analysts
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 4 level, 0 price closer, on 313–545 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
October 31Yes Contentious-DinnerdateContentious-Dinnerdate: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No SnapElectionAvoiderSnapElectionAvoider: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 6 Contentious-DinnerdateContentious-Dinnerdate: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1KimchiCapitalKimchiCapital: Tier 2, #11 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 11 SnapElectionAvoiderSnapElectionAvoider: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1poli.monacopoli.monaco: Tier 1, #6 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 6 · 11
December 31Yes Contentious-DinnerdateContentious-Dinnerdate: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No SnapElectionAvoiderSnapElectionAvoider: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 2 Contentious-DinnerdateContentious-Dinnerdate: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1robert-mukhametovrobert-mukhametov: Tier 2, #47 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 2 SnapElectionAvoiderSnapElectionAvoider: Tier 1, #3 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1poli.monacopoli.monaco: Tier 1, #6 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 2 · 2
October 28No 4ts3hc4ts3hc: Tier 2, #22 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 02 4ts3hc4ts3hc: Tier 2, #22 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T20xef34…0ff60xef34…0ff6: Tier 2, #28 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 0 · 2
October 30Yes Contentious-DinnerdateContentious-Dinnerdate: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No ifyoulovemeifyouloveme: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 Contentious-DinnerdateContentious-Dinnerdate: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 ifyoulovemeifyouloveme: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 · 1
October 29No Hugin-og-MuninHugin-og-Munin: Tier 2, #34 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 Hugin-og-MuninHugin-og-Munin: Tier 2, #34 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T20 · 1
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- In plain English
- Resolves Yes if Anthropic releases to the general public a model whose name includes 'Fable' and is designated version 5.2 or higher (a whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6 also counts) between market creation and October 31 (ET). Open beta or an open rolling waitlist counts. A closed beta or private access does not. Fable 5.1 and Mythos models do not qualify. Otherwise No.
- Watch out
- Only a model named with 'Fable' and designated 5.2 or higher counts. Claude Fable 5.1, Mythos models, and closed-beta or private access do not qualify.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
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