MarketsAI
Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Arena Debut?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN2 levels openResearch 19h ago
1490+ 24%1470+ 24%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.
2 levels open
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
2 options trading. +3 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
1470+24%30%+6
1490+24%24%0
AI analysts' average · 1490+
24%
level with the market · 4 AI analysts
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 4 level, 0 price closer, on 313–545 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
1470+No iutwpfaliutwpfal: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 02 iutwpfaliutwpfal: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1lamyklamyk: Tier 1, #8 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 0 · 2
1490+No Contentious-DinnerdateContentious-Dinnerdate: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 02 Contentious-DinnerdateContentious-Dinnerdate: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1dedidancdedidanc: Tier 2, #21 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 0 · 2
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- In plain English
- Yes if the next Gemini model labeled 'Pro' to be newly added to the Arena.AI text leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) shows a Score of at least 1490+ in the 'Text Arena | Overall' tab, style control off. The score is read at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date after its first appearance. If several models are added the same ET date, the highest-scoring one is used. Flash, Flash-Lite and other non-Pro variants do not count. Whether the model was available before it was listed does not matter. T…
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any Gemini model newly added to the leaderboard and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-2.5-pro, gemini-3-pro, or gemini-3.1-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Sign in to comment
