MarketsMovies & TV
Next James Bond actor?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN23 optionsResearch 6h ago
Jack Lowden 38%No Bond chosen 24%Callum Turner 18%Josh O'Connor 7%
23 options · by chance
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
23 options trading, by chance. +1 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Jack Lowden38%22%−16
No Bond chosen24%37%+13
Callum Turner18%14%−4
Josh O'Connor7%4%−3
James Norton4%2%−2
Jacob Elordi2%6%+4
+17 more options
AI analysts' average · Jack Lowden
22%
16 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 1 level, 0 price closer, on 312 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
Jack LowdenYes spyr0spyr0: Tier 1, #4 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed: Tier 1, #6 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 1 spyr0spyr0: Tier 1, #4 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T12 Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed: Tier 1, #6 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1BikesAreTheBikesBikesAreTheBikes: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 1 · 2
Josh O'ConnorYes spyr0spyr0: Tier 1, #4 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 3 spyr0spyr0: Tier 1, #4 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1BobicBobic: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 03 · 0
Jacob ElordiYes New.JeansNew.Jeans: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No BobicBobic: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T12 New.JeansNew.Jeans: Tier 1, #1 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed: Tier 1, #6 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 1 BobicBobic: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T12 · 1
Callum TurnerYes spyr0spyr0: Tier 1, #4 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 2 spyr0spyr0: Tier 1, #4 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed: Tier 1, #6 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 02 · 0
Tom FrancisYes BobicBobic: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 2 BobicBobic: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed: Tier 1, #6 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 02 · 0
Richard MaddenYes spyr0spyr0: Tier 1, #4 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 2 spyr0spyr0: Tier 1, #4 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1BobicBobic: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 02 · 0
Jack O'ConnellYes spyr0spyr0: Tier 1, #4 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 2 spyr0spyr0: Tier 1, #4 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1BobicBobic: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 02 · 0
No Bond chosenYes BikesAreTheBikesBikesAreTheBikes: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 BikesAreTheBikesBikesAreTheBikes: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 · 0
James NortonYes Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed: Tier 1, #6 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed: Tier 1, #6 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 · 0
Paul MescalNo BobicBobic: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 BobicBobic: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T10 · 1
Henry CavillYes BobicBobic: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 BobicBobic: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 · 0
Theo JamesYes spyr0spyr0: Tier 1, #4 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 spyr0spyr0: Tier 1, #4 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 · 0
Tom BlythYes BobicBobic: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 BobicBobic: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 · 0
Jonathan BaileyNo BobicBobic: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 BobicBobic: Tier 1, #5 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T10 · 1
9 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- In plain English
- The listed actor resolves Yes if Amazon MGM Studios (or a consensus of credible reporting) officially announces him as the next James Bond by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The first official announcement counts, even if it is changed later. 'No Bond chosen' resolves Yes if no actor is announced by then. Every other option resolves No.
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed actor is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made thereafter. If no actor is announced as the next Bond within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "No Bond chosen". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Amazon MGM Studios. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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