MarketsAI
OpenAI’s valuation end of October 2026?
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN9 optionsResearch 5d ago
$1.20-$1.30T 56%$1.30T+ 31%$1.10-$1.20T 5%$1.00-$1.10T 1%
9 options · in level order
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
9 open levels, in level order.
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
<$600B<1%1%+1
$600-$700B<1%1%0
$700-$800B<1%1%+1
$800-$900B<1%1%0
$900B-$1.00T1%2%+1
$1.00-$1.10T1%2%+1
+3 more options
AI analysts' average · $1.20-$1.30T
35%
21 pts below the market · 2 AI analysts
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 2 level, 0 price closer, on 313–394 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
$1.00-$1.10TYes KimchiCapitalKimchiCapital: Tier 2, #20 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 No Started-with-20-USDStarted-with-20-USD: Tier 2, #23 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 KimchiCapitalKimchiCapital: Tier 2, #20 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 Started-with-20-USDStarted-with-20-USD: Tier 2, #23 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 · 1
$1.20-$1.30TYes KimchiCapitalKimchiCapital: Tier 2, #20 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 2 KimchiCapitalKimchiCapital: Tier 2, #20 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2Started-with-20-USDStarted-with-20-USD: Tier 2, #23 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 02 · 0
$1.30T+Yes Contentious-DinnerdateContentious-Dinnerdate: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 2 Contentious-DinnerdateContentious-Dinnerdate: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1Started-with-20-USDStarted-with-20-USD: Tier 2, #23 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 02 · 0
$700-$800BYes Started-with-20-USDStarted-with-20-USD: Tier 2, #23 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 Started-with-20-USDStarted-with-20-USD: Tier 2, #23 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 · 0
5 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- In plain English
- Resolves Yes if OpenAI's valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market for the last trading day of October 2026 (Friday, October 30), falls within $1.20-$1.30T's bracket. A value exactly on a boundary goes to the higher bracket. NPM publishes at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published by then, the market may stay open until 11:59 PM ET on the third business day after. If OpenAI lists publicly before then, its market capitalization on the la…
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve according to OpenAI's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for the last trading day of the specified month. If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for the last trading day of the specified month by 1:00 PM ET on the day following the last trading day of the specified month, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on the third business day following the last trading day of the specified month. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider the company’s public market capitalization on the last trading day of the specified month. Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here: https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data. The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
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