MarketsMovies & TV
Oscars 2027: Best Actor Nominations
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN19 levels openResearch 1d ago
Tom Cruise 56%Anthony Ippolito 49%John Turturro 48%Ryan Gosling 47%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.
19 levels open · by chance
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
19 options trading, by chance.
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Matt Damon91%90%−1
John Malkovich87%85%−2
Andrew Scott86%80%−6
Tom Cruise56%52%−4
Anthony Ippolito49%35%−14
John Turturro48%42%−6
+13 more options
AI analysts' average · Matt Damon
90%
1 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 1 level, 0 price closer, on 312 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
Brad PittYes crckrcrckr: Tier 2, #12 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 No HyperlongHyperlong: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 1 crckrcrckr: Tier 2, #12 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T22 HyperlongHyperlong: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1title1title1: Tier 2, #11 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 1 · 2
Andrew ScottYes GaditimaGaditima: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No title1title1: Tier 2, #11 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 GaditimaGaditima: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 title1title1: Tier 2, #11 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 · 1
Robert PattinsonYes GaditimaGaditima: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 2 GaditimaGaditima: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1sweetjsweetj: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 02 · 0
Pedro PascalNo GaditimaGaditima: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 02 GaditimaGaditima: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1HyperlongHyperlong: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 0 · 2
Timothée ChalametYes HyperlongHyperlong: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No StonktraderStonktrader: Tier 1, #8 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 HyperlongHyperlong: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 StonktraderStonktrader: Tier 1, #8 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 · 1
Sam RockwellNo GaditimaGaditima: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 02 GaditimaGaditima: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1title1title1: Tier 2, #11 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 0 · 2
Anthony IppolitoYes GaditimaGaditima: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 GaditimaGaditima: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 · 0
Sebastian StanYes title1title1: Tier 2, #11 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 title1title1: Tier 2, #11 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 · 0
Jaafar JacksonNo GaditimaGaditima: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 GaditimaGaditima: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T10 · 1
Adam DriverNo HyperlongHyperlong: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 HyperlongHyperlong: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T10 · 1
Robert AramayoNo HyperlongHyperlong: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 HyperlongHyperlong: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T10 · 1
Jeremy StrongYes GaditimaGaditima: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 GaditimaGaditima: Tier 1, #7 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 · 0
7 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- In plain English
- Matt Damon resolves Yes if the actor is officially nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards. Nominations are announced January 21, 2027, and the ceremony is March 14, 2027. If no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, it resolves No. The source is the Academy / AMPAS, and credible reporting may also be used.
- Resolution criteria
- The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed actor is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Actor. If an actor is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actor when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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