How do I trade on "Will Robert Aramayo be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?"?

Trade this market based on your view. If you think the outcome will happen, buy the side that pays out if it happens. If you think it won't, buy the side that pays out if it doesn't. Prices reflect the market's estimated probability.

When does this market resolve?

Markets resolve automatically based on real-world data. Check the resolution date shown on the market page.

Oscars 2027: Best Actor Nominations

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN19 levels openCloses Jan 21, 2027Research 1h ago

Polymarket price · the 4 levels nearest 50%

Tom Cruise 61%Robert Pattinson 48%Ryan Gosling 44%John Turturro 41%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.

19 levels open · by chance

OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

Matt Damon94%+0.8 pts86%none

John Malkovich88%−0.5 pts74%none

Andrew Scott86%−0.5 pts66%1 · 1

Tom Cruise61%−1.5 pts64%0 · 1

Robert Pattinson48%+4.0 pts37%1 · 0

Ryan Gosling44%+0.5 pts47%none

John Turturro41%−0.5 pts30%none

Anthony Ippolito39%+1.0 pts27%none

Pedro Pascal17%+0.6 pts19%0 · 2

Sebastian Stan17%+1.5 pts22%1 · 0

Jaafar Jackson16%−1.0 pts20%0 · 1

Timothée Chalamet11%−3.5 pts23%1 · 1

Sam Rockwell7%+2.0 pts8%0 · 2

Adam Driver7%+1.8 pts8%0 · 1

Josh O'Connor6%+0.4 pts7%none

Javier Bardem4%−0.5 pts19%none

Brad Pitt3%−0.2 pts4%1 · 2

Robert Aramayo3%−0.3 pts3%0 · 1

Jeremy Strong<1%—18%1 · 0

19 options trading, by chance. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 1h ago

OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

Matt Damon94%86%−8

John Malkovich88%74%−14

Andrew Scott86%66%−20

Tom Cruise61%64%+3

Robert Pattinson48%37%−11

Ryan Gosling44%47%+3

+13 more options

AI analysts' average · Robert Aramayo

level with the market · 2 AI analysts

Biggest gap

Andrew Scott: AI 66% vs market 86%, 20 pts below

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

News

17h
#OscarsSoWhite … again? The post-‘Sinners’ Oscar season falls short on diversity
Gold Derby
21h
12 films from major festivals that could define the race for the 2027 Oscars
Vogue Adria
1d
Andrew Garfield takes his ‘Artificial’ Oscar campaign to the Santa Barbara Film Festival
Gold Derby
2d
Oscar Predictions via Feinberg Forecast: Scott’s Mid-October Charts and Dissection of the Race
The Hollywood Reporter
2d
A Post-Film Festival Analysis of the 2027 Oscar Contenders
Matthew Huff | Substack
6d
Zendaya + A24 = Oscar? How her upcoming films with Alex Garland and Barry Jenkins could be a path to gold
Gold Derby

Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.

Polymarket's film awards traders by 3-month profit · updated 37m ago

OptionHoldingTiers 1–2

Brad Pitt31 · 2

Andrew Scott21 · 1

Pedro Pascal20 · 2

Timothée Chalamet21 · 1

Sam Rockwell20 · 2

Tom Cruise10 · 1

Robert Pattinson11 · 0

Sebastian Stan11 · 0

Jaafar Jackson10 · 1

Adam Driver10 · 1

Robert Aramayo10 · 1

Jeremy Strong11 · 0

7 options: no ranked trader holds them

Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 19 options

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed actor is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Actor. If an actor is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actor when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.Show rulesHide rules

Resolution criteria: The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed actor is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Actor. If an actor is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actor when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.

How markets resolve

Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

Oscars 2027: Best Actor Nominations

Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result

OPEN19 levels openCloses Jan 21, 2027Research 1h ago

Polymarket price · the 4 levels nearest 50%

Tom Cruise 61%Robert Pattinson 48%Ryan Gosling 44%John Turturro 41%

Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.

19 levels open · by chance

OptionChance24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy

Matt Damon94%+0.8 pts86%none

John Malkovich88%−0.5 pts74%none

Andrew Scott86%−0.5 pts66%1 · 1

Tom Cruise61%−1.5 pts64%0 · 1

Robert Pattinson48%+4.0 pts37%1 · 0

Ryan Gosling44%+0.5 pts47%none

John Turturro41%−0.5 pts30%none

Anthony Ippolito39%+1.0 pts27%none

Pedro Pascal17%+0.6 pts19%0 · 2

Sebastian Stan17%+1.5 pts22%1 · 0

Jaafar Jackson16%−1.0 pts20%0 · 1

Timothée Chalamet11%−3.5 pts23%1 · 1

Sam Rockwell7%+2.0 pts8%0 · 2

Adam Driver7%+1.8 pts8%0 · 1

Josh O'Connor6%+0.4 pts7%none

Javier Bardem4%−0.5 pts19%none

Brad Pitt3%−0.2 pts4%1 · 2

Robert Aramayo3%−0.3 pts3%0 · 1

Jeremy Strong<1%—18%1 · 0

19 options trading, by chance. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

AI analysts

7 AI analysts · each gives every option a chance · updated 1h ago

OptionMarketAI averageAIGap

Matt Damon94%86%−8

John Malkovich88%74%−14

Andrew Scott86%66%−20

Tom Cruise61%64%+3

Robert Pattinson48%37%−11

Ryan Gosling44%47%+3

+13 more options

AI analysts' average · Robert Aramayo

level with the market · 2 AI analysts

Biggest gap

Andrew Scott: AI 66% vs market 86%, 20 pts below

Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

News

17h
#OscarsSoWhite … again? The post-‘Sinners’ Oscar season falls short on diversity
Gold Derby
21h
12 films from major festivals that could define the race for the 2027 Oscars
Vogue Adria
1d
Andrew Garfield takes his ‘Artificial’ Oscar campaign to the Santa Barbara Film Festival
Gold Derby
2d
Oscar Predictions via Feinberg Forecast: Scott’s Mid-October Charts and Dissection of the Race
The Hollywood Reporter
2d
A Post-Film Festival Analysis of the 2027 Oscar Contenders
Matthew Huff | Substack
6d
Zendaya + A24 = Oscar? How her upcoming films with Alex Garland and Barry Jenkins could be a path to gold
Gold Derby

Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.

Polymarket's film awards traders by 3-month profit · updated 37m ago

OptionHoldingTiers 1–2

Brad Pitt31 · 2

Andrew Scott21 · 1

Pedro Pascal20 · 2

Timothée Chalamet21 · 1

Sam Rockwell20 · 2

Tom Cruise10 · 1

Robert Pattinson11 · 0

Sebastian Stan11 · 0

Jaafar Jackson10 · 1

Adam Driver10 · 1

Robert Aramayo10 · 1

Jeremy Strong11 · 0

7 options: no ranked trader holds them

Each cell: holders of Yes · No. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.

See who they are, their average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.

For information purposes only. Not investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 19 options

Resolution criteria: The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed actor is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Actor. If an actor is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actor when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket.

How markets resolve

Kellian is not affiliated with Polymarket. For information purposes only. Not investment advice.

Oscars 2027: Best Actor Nominations

1AI analysts

2News

3Smart moneySmart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 19 options

Related Markets

Oscars 2027: Best Actor Nominations

1AI analysts

2News

3Smart moneySmart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.

Rules Polymarket's rules · the same for all 19 options

Related Markets

AI analysts

News

AI analysts

News