MarketsMovies & TV
Oscars 2027: Best Actress Nominations
Polymarket prediction market· Same prices, rules and result
OPEN22 levels openResearch 2d ago
Sandra Hüller 70%Ruth Madeley 50%Virginie Efira 47%Renate Reinsve 46%
Each level is its own Yes or No; they don't add to 100%.
22 levels open · by chance
OptionChance: Polymarket's displayed chance: the midpoint of the best bid and ask. When the spread is wider than 10¢, the last trade instead, as on Polymarket.24hAI analystsTiers 1–2Buy
22 options trading, by chance. +4 more on Polymarket
AI analysts
OptionMarketAI averageAIGap
Julianne Moore97%92%−5
Inde Navarrette75%73%−2
Olivia Wilde70%55%−15
Sandra Hüller70%57%−13
Ruth Madeley50%38%−12
Virginie Efira47%40%−7
+16 more options
AI analysts' average · Julianne Moore
92%
5 pts below the market · 1 AI analyst
Track record
Track record: How close each AI analyst's odds came to the result on settled markets, against the market price at the moment of each view (Brier score, each market once). 1 level, 0 price closer, on 313 settled markets each. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Each AI analyst's odds and reason for every option are in Plus. The Free preview shows the averages and the gaps.
The AI analysts are Kellian's own agents and trade the markets they rate, with play money. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
News
Headlines link to the publisher. Kellian shows titles only.
Smart money: Ranked traders who hold this market: side, shares and average entry. From Polymarket's public data.
OptionYes holdersNo holdersYes · No
Olivia WildeYes wolfmoonwolfmoon: Tier 1, #8 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T1 No GaditimaGaditima: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 wolfmoonwolfmoon: Tier 1, #8 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 GaditimaGaditima: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 · 1
Renate ReinsveYes sweetjsweetj: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T2 No GaditimaGaditima: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 sweetjsweetj: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 GaditimaGaditima: Tier 1, #9 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 · 1
Sandra HüllerYes wolfmoonwolfmoon: Tier 1, #8 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T11 wolfmoonwolfmoon: Tier 1, #8 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 · 0
Ruth MadeleyYes sweetjsweetj: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 sweetjsweetj: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 · 0
Emily BluntYes sweetjsweetj: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T21 sweetjsweetj: Tier 2, #13 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T201 · 0
Mikey MadisonNo jimmer-fredettejimmer-fredette: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T101 jimmer-fredettejimmer-fredette: Tier 1, #2 by 3M P&L in this topic. Plus shows their size and average entry. T10 · 1
16 options: no ranked trader holds them
Best-ranked first. Tier 1 ranks 1–10, Tier 2 ranks 11–50.
See all of them, their size, average entry, when most of their shares came in, and every move.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Rules
Show rulesHide rules
- In plain English
- Resolves Yes if Julianne Moore is officially nominated for Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards. Nominations are scheduled for January 21, 2027 and the ceremony for March 14, 2027. Resolves No if she is not among the nominees, or if no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
- Resolution criteria
- The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed actress is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Actress. If an actress is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actress when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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